Weather forecasts

(Peter Scawen) #1

Each day, don't ask why, given the context, I look at the weather forecast on the BBC and local forecasts on some French web sites.

According the the current forecast, we have 40 KPH winds and rain but actually we have a nice dry sunny with cloudy day and winds of around 20 KPH max.

This seems to be well almost typical.

In the scheme of things it isn't that important but does anyone have this same problem.

Do I have a little and personal micro-climate?

Am I on a different planet?

(Barbara Deane) #2

I think that you live near me....

I am in Gensac 33890.

Weather not bad....alittle chilly today.

(Deleted account) #3

the weather is a best guess, i remember watching a documentary about how they forecast the weather, basically the put all the data they have ever had into a big computer which churns through it and generates 7 or 8 possibilities, then someone goes outside and has a look at the sky and decides which one is most likely,

also when looking at a country as large as France to get the scaling to cover everywhere there is no way they can be accurate for everyone in the area shown, in the uk for example, we would say Leicester and Nottingham are miles apart, but in France traveling that far is like nipping to the pub!!!

i must say the short term forecast, when they target a specific area, for example the F1 forecasts it is very accurate, they can predict rain to within a few seconds, but they have spotters and current radar data and lots of people analyzing, they are reasonable for 6-8 hour forecasts also, but anything more than that is best guess, if SWMBO wants to know how its going to be, she asks me, my guesses are usually more accurate than any weather programs

(Robert Hodge) #4

I use the Meteo France website to be found at this link

You can reset it to apply to your own particular town or village, and I must say that in general it is pretty accurate. I especially like the part where you can see if there will be any rain during the next hour, which I find to be very accurate. Alternatively one can just phone a friend who happens to be about twenty miles upwind of course.

(Peter Scawen) #5

Yes Robert, that is what I do, in fact I have several weather sites as we plan our day to day work around the house and garden on the weather forecast.

They rarely tell the same story and not always get it right.

But just to be clear, this post, on my behalf at least, was intended to be humorous.

Clearly I failed.

(Patrick Bell) #6

Lets face it the short term forecasts are usually accurate. But they only have to be a few kms out and you'd think otherwise. There's also confirmation bias in that if its wrong we remember but if its right not so much.