“Now Macron must decide whether to appoint yet another ally to the Hôtel de Matignon, reach out to the Socialists for an unlikely coalition, or risk new snap elections that could catapult Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National into power. Each option is fraught with risk.”
I fear that whoever Macron appoints will be a dead man walking. Le Pen is pushing hard for a general election and a nationwide general strike this Wednesday will be dreadful optics for the government’s proposed austerity agenda.
My bet is that there will be a general election called. Macron looks tired.
A lot of commentators are suggesting that there isn’t a workable solution as none of the opposition parties, nor previous governments from the past thirty years have had any desire to tackle France’s serious problems because the solutions would be too unpopular. Instead, they’ve always been in favour of just been kicking the can further down the road.
Some people were arguing this evening that the problem lies in the constitution of the Fifth Republic that gave too much power to the president, but also that these problems will not be resolvable until French political parties become capable of forming a coalition governments instead of grandstanding
Personally I don’t think Macron will resign (but I usually get this sort of prediction wrong). My reason for thinking he won’t resign is that although he no longer has much control over domestic policy, he sees himself as remaining an important and influential leader on the international stage, particularly in the context of European/EU support for Ukraine.
Once a new PM has been unearthed (no one wants the job) I imagine eventually the budget for next year will be forced through as it was last time (which won’t solve anything other than the day to day stuff of the country continuing to function).
It’ll be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday - I don’t like the anonymity of the organisers and although I don’t suspect Russia of having instigated it, I’d be surprised if they’re not involved. Saw footage of a rally in Rennes this evening and all the speakers bar one had their faces covered even though they weren’t doing anything illegal.
Yes, many of these manifestations are usually a cover to incite rioting, vandalism and other non-peaceful demonstrations that ordinary folks would expect to take part in to show their feelings. Those black blocks or whatever they are called, are always causing trouble at any marches and have no education, mostly mindless unemployed thugs out for trouble. This then escalates with more costs to the tax payer who dosn’t get anywhere with their demonstrations. We all saw the mindlessness of damaging monuments and statues and businesses during the gilet jaune protests that were hijacked.