A no-deal Brexit spells trouble for Emmanuel Macron

:grinning::grinning::grinning: I see - RoI not ROI ? Republic of Ireland not Return On Investment and I couldn’t make any sense out of that. I should have made the connection from the graph. :blush: Doh. Lesson remembered - it’s always worth another look

I moved the management of some investments from London to Dublin last year to mitigate problems with access so a lot of stuff about Irish Financial Services comes across my desk. I find it’s easy to forget the CTA gives UK and Irish citizens FoM that will survive Brexit (unless May has other ideas) and it does give companies moving skills from UK to Ireland a huge advantage over the rest of Europe, along with the (mostly) common language and ease of travel.

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Yes - Keiger is a politics academic - he is neither an economist nor a business specialist.

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My understanding is that Hilary has provided the service of bringing an article published in the Spectator to Survive France subscribers attention. Personally, I thank her. I hope others when they discover interesting contributions to the Brexit debate will do the same.
Good educators strive to create safe environments for their learners. Each learner brings their own unique perception. A referendum is a crude measure of collective intelligence. I say crude because: a) opinion makers endeavour to manipulate opinion, b) censorship is as much about the information released as the information withheld, c) as I have written before the media are not concerned with the truth but rather maintaining / increasing the size of their audience. There are a number of tests to determine information’s relevance to a debate, including: is it on topic, is the author credible, can the facts cited be verified. The article satisfies those tests. It is dishonest to attack the poster of information unless there is evidence of gross spin doctor manipulation by the poster.
Turning to the article itself, one of the arguments is that information given to the the public, British, French, German etc. is censored. I think that one view point on the Gilet Jaunes is a french reaction to the dis-information provided to the french people. As I drive through France I see slogans with the message (translated and summarised ) we the people suffer whilst the elite prosper. Many ordinary working people in Europe are paying for the actions of bank executives that lead to the 2007 - 2008 global financial crisis but do we learn that the bank executives have been required to return their bonuses? Varoufakis ( the Greek financial minister at the time of the Greek crisis ) has some interesting views ( available on YouTube , or in his books ) that eloquently exposes the deliberate mis-information espoused by european politicians - and in particular the role of Merkel in “protecting” the Deutsche Bundesbank.
In any moral debate, after providing verifiable facts participants draw conclusions. Those conclusions are shaped by the participant’s personal prediction of the affect of the argument on them, their sense of altruism, their arrogant selfishness. But collectively a true democracy enables the working man to shape the future to benefit all and not just the un-elected oligarchy.
In conclusion, we should welcome all legitimate, relevant contributions to a debate, rationally share opinion, avoid becoming entrenched in protecting our ego, recognise that some problems (like Brexit) are wicked ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wicked_problem ) , but progress requires contribution by all to benefits all.

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Interestingly… last weekend, I had the odd person ask me about Brexit… but many more wanted to talk about the GJ situation.

One particular gentleman explained that the “old folk” had worked hard all their lives, to survive. Very little “help” was available to them…so they went without anything “frivolous”. Their cash went on food/housing/family etc.

Over the years, more and more aid/help has become available. Eventually, what was once deemed “frivolous” is now seen (by many) as “essential”.

For every “aid” that is handed out… the money has to come from somewhere…??? … and where is that (he shrugged his shoulders and rolled his eyes)…

Nowadays folk see it as their right to have this or that… and feel hard-done by if they have to go without.

They show their dissatisfaction in many ways… usually at Elections…

As a result of all this aid/help being given… the spending is running out of control…the Purse is nearly running on empty…

So, the government seeks to demand more money from the older generation, in order to give the younger generation a helping hand.

Well, at that point, the gentleman got very red in the face and said words to the effect that…

The youngsters of today need to learn what hard work means. We need to find them employment not give them handouts.

Before apoplexy set in… his wife tapped his shoulder and led him away…

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Charming language

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Thank you for your input Robert, however these words are used in the best possible circles these days, even without the extreme provocation of Brexit :slight_smile:

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Let’s face it… things must be dire…:roll_eyes: I didn’t bat an eyelid when I read your words… 'cos I could feel (and share) your pain… :hugs:

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Nowadays it seems that people ‘have’ to have things.
There is no worry about racking up debt.
If we wanted something, we saved for it and did without until we could afford it.
Not old fashioned but sensible.
Nowadays one hears people listing shopping as a pastime.
No wonder the world is full of ‘stuff’ that people ‘have’ to buy and that the personal debt of the nation is so high.

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It would appear that a no-deal Brexit spells trouble for Theresa May as well it seems next week!

Brexit: Theresa May warned dozens of Tories could rebel over no-deal

Ms Dunk merely posted an article from the Spectator. Did she really deserve the response you gave?

I’m afraid yes is the answer. You’ve obviously no idea how fed up people are becoming with Brexit Tim.

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Apathy is fast becoming the greatest danger if we have a second referendum.
Even Jean Claude Junkers said that he did not want to hear Brexit again!

See Juncker with a bandaid on his cheek yesterday whilst standing next to TM made me smile, I wonder if she socked him one because he wouldn’t change the backstop?:grinning:

He addressed that in his press conference, seems it was a shaving malfunction, If anybody needs a good clout it’s our Teresa IMO.

Why am I so late for these posts? I know I am determined to be late for my own funeral (so no other bugger will be there, which will happen anyway) but, have I gone into lost, stolen or strayed mode somehow?

So a collective particiaption by way of a catch-up if I may?

Hilary. First is a simple fact that net conrubution to the EU by Brition is just on €9 Billion pa (read OECD and ILF figures to check). A lot of money, yes indeed, BUT the overall Budget for the EU is €160 Billion, which pute these figures into a bit more perspective. Plus apparently, although I cannot swear to the veracity of it, apparently little Finland has offered to make up the shortfall.

Ref Macron. He was voted in on a ‘change’ basis and ‘pro-business’. Few would argue that both these things have needed urgent addressing. They are also issues that need addressing in many countries and the short answer is NOT in increasing Nationalism that is being espoused by many. America is one of the very few countries that could even come close to self-sufficiency in the short term, but the UK is more vulnerable that most in this regard.

Even at the height of Empire Britain was unable to feed itself, without relying on not just the Commonwealth - although mainly on Australia and New Zealand. WW2 just about broke the UK in every sense and the loss of the Empire made them even more vulnerable. Today there are even more people and even less land under cultivation of food. Worldwide it is becoming obvious that meat-eating is both climate damaging in the demands made by cattle in both eating the grasses and the expulsion of methane. It is NOT even profitable for the producers any more. Unsustainable.

Britain is going out of its way (or some 50% of it is) to aggravate, annoy and insult its closest trading partners which must go down as one of the daftest foreign policies ever created! Even Russia provided grain to the USA in the 190’s which some conveniently forget. They also forget that when the grain harvest collapsed in Russia during Clinton’s Presidency he refused to sell (note SELL not donate) American grain to the ‘enemy’. Ever wonder about tensions internationally?

Everyone has the right to criticise its Leaders, and to an extent those of others, but such disagreements are best left to professionals not hack journalists such as are more rife in the UK than any other country I know.

Here in France, there is nothing new about France being a poor country to invest in. The bureaucracy has been the main problem, and the perceived strength of the anarchist-derived CGT a major deterrent. Although those of us who have studied the phenomenon of street marches in France understand they derived from the hugely splintered political scene in this country for Decades and decades which gave very little access to ‘mass points of view’. We all know this no longer applies.

A little suggested reading might help ‘Hall Davis’ The Course of Europe since Waterloo’ and Robert Tombs ‘France 1814-1914’ are worth the effort. There are of course many others in French, but these as their titles indicate are in English.

DeGaulle famously said ‘France was ungovernable’ and gave as a humorous support the number of cheeses made here. More valid even is the fact that France is still largely a conservative country that resists change. Yes, ‘change’ here must carry the suffix ‘as long as it doesn’t change things for me’.

I applaud Macron for his efforts, whilst still recognising a level of ineptness in his PR and even operational methodology. His inexperience was widely attacked before he was voted in, as was his background, employment history and the fact that he has a much older wife. None of this is new, none are revelations.

Now (as a voting Frenchman) I am being told by a bunch of yellow vests who I should vote for? Yes they can tell me, and I can ignore them, but when they march in my face, destroy businesses that I respect and of other French citizens, abuse and assault the guardians of Law and Order - I can’t find a single reason to take any of their ‘arguments’ on board. How strange that in this now much-abused Presidency I still have that right? Just as it would appear the yellow vests, the Bolshevik would-be Kommissar Melenchon and th odious name changer Marine LePen have th e right to spout their rubbish to the gullible? What a terrible dictatorship we live under with the ‘new Napoleon’? Utter tripe.

Just as so many Brits have said ‘we don’t want the EU’ then yes, they should just go. Ditto with the people who live in France (and remain resolutely British) should really consider their options and values. Now is crunch time.

I made my decision before Brexit, as I know many others have done. I can’t see a single reason (again) to change my mind.

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The UK contributes around 14 billion to the EU budget, using their net contribution but the total budget figure is misleading.

UK contribution is about 18% of the total.

If the total EU budget is 160 billion that would see the UK contribute around 30 billion if the 18% is correct, however they get an immediate discount so the real percentage is much lower.

The total EU budget includes other sources of revenue, we are talking about direct contributions, of which the UK share is about 18%