I agree with Timothy that there probably will be a so-called ‘thin’ deal, and there won’t be ‘armageddon’ - but there will be multiple little instances of chaos and confusion for months, and running sores, and continuing negotiations over many years, probably ending only after much inconvenience and some misery in the UK going back first into the single market and customs union - and eventually back into the EU.
The sticking points for a deal are both totemic to the Tories. The fishing industry only employs 12,000 workers & is worth about £2 billion/year so could be easily ignored if it wasn’t for the symbolic value of regaining control of the seas around Britain from the EU. The other impediment to a deal at present is the question of state aid to industry. As this is a Tory government that is surely a moot point anyway but apparently the Tories now want to have the freedom to prop up failing industries with state aid.
And thanks very much to you @carlmt for responding so handsomely!
Apologies to all Bournvillites and Brummies everywhere for my frenchifying the name of the hallowed suburb too… 
Absolutely, sooner or later.
A vain and hubristic hope, if ever there were one. I don’t imagine it is one any sea-going fisherman would express lightly.
Fukushima (edited thanks to @boilerman’s corrective) comes terribly to mind…
I had the 500cc version
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Chances are that the full impact on trade will not be felt immediately but will ramp up fairly quickly .
In fact the difference between any deal which could be done now, and no-deal will be fairly minimal. No-deal adds tariffs but that is probably not the worst part of the difficulties - because the deal does not include services and there will be just as much paperwork either way.
Johnson’t biggest problem is being caught between the ERG and reality, in practice he is screwed whatever he does - if there is a deal the ERG wil eat him for lunch and if there isn’t the country will eat him for lunch.
Plus, if Trump does not win that’s a big hole in the populist balloon, adding to his problems
I think the pandemic has changed the dynamic of both the US elections and the fallout of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. Without Covid-19 Trump gets in again and the EU makes things awkward for Johnson but now Biden will win and the EU has to be pragmatic and save punishing the UK for some time in the future.
With the serious prospect of his mate Trump losing Johnson will already have people talking to Biden’s team although I can’t now see any trade deal being done with the US for years.
That was a thing though wasn’t it? Johnson left “talking to Biden’s team” way too late, and sent Raab who put his foot in it (as usual).
Very true…he’s going to get eaten by someone and when his government’s ineptitude is realised he will be toast anyway. Why European govs did not see and plan for this second virus wave is beyond me
Wow. Spin doctors, the lot of them.
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It’s beyond me as well - in some ways that the UK government got it wrong is understandable but I can’t comprehend why the French were so far off piste.
I think that the nature of an exponential curve which looks quite innocent for the first few weeks plus the 4-6 week lag between infection and death for those that do not survive makes it almost certain that politicians get it wrong (it is said that Merkel’s scientific background helped her grasp what was happening quite quickly).
They respond to the increase in deaths but by that time it is too late. I also think that the increase in testing and going from picking up 10% of cases to 75% or more did not help in the end. People looked at the numbers and concluded that things were not as bad as the spring as there were, apparently, vastly fewer deaths per positive test - but the virus as not changed its behaviour, except perhaps to become better at spreading. It was explained away as younger people getting infected so it was OK “because they don’t get sick”. Unfortunately that ignores the fact that a) they do and b) even if they don’t they can pass it on to more vulnerable groups.
I said this 2 months ago and met with resistance.
Gulp! Thanks, I have edited my original to Fukushima!
Nothing amiss with Fukushima, I trust? 
Where the tsunami struck? (re fishermen and control of the sea etc) 
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Here’s a thought about Brexit and Trump
Looks like , thankgoodness, his time has come, by a small majority the American people realised their 2016 mistake and reversed it …and in 20 time history will probably judge it to be a relatively short aberration.
But with Brexit same aberration but in 20 years time the young people who by a majority voted No will still be living with the effects of the error.
I hope that in 20 years there will have been some rapprochement, if only because of the sheer necessity to improve relations with our neighbours, but starting to mend fences will probably take a period of reality biting hard.
Trump going can only be good - no matter how good or bad a president turns out to be I think at least he will be a president, not a nepotistic dictator.
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more bleeding incompetence which won’t impress President-Elect Biden
What’s that annoying old adage - normally trotted out by some smug git who didn’t have a hand in proceedings?
Oh, yes, “fail to prepare = prepare to fail”, seems UK government is hell bent on demonstrating its validity.
There’s also the famous army “6P” rule - I think we’re headed for the last three P’s of that one 
(actually, on sober reflection, we’re already there).