Brexit Vote, what next!

brexit
(Brian Wheeler) #1

Oh Dear! Historic defeat for the PM and now a motion of no confidence in the Government, what a bloody mess. I can’t see Brexit happening on 29th March. There is no consensus for something else so how can anything be agreed before that date. How do others see this playing out?

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(Paul Flinders) #2

The Tories should win the confidence motion since the DUP have said they will honour the “confidence and supply” agreement.

That prolongs the stalemate but, to be honest, I don’t see a GM and Labour government as any more likely to get us out of this mess.

My worry is that May is so hell bent on “delivering the will of the people” that she might try to stall until we drop out with no deal.

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(Mark Robbins) #3

Just watching Andrew Neill interviewing a health minister, if thats the best the "government " can do, there is absolutely no hope for any reasonable Brexshit deal, we’re all doomed​:zipper_mouth_face::zipper_mouth_face:

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(Brian Wheeler) #4

They keep rolling out Matt Hancock as a spokesperson he really struggled tonight. He’s the Health Secretary not just a minister. In charge of the NHS! God help us!

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(Brian Wheeler) #5

She should win it, but would only take a few Brexit rebels to bring her down. But don’t rule it out in these exceptional times. Given the poles saying labour are 6 points behind in the poles they could role the dice :game_die: to bring down their own Government in hope of winning an election with a new leader. Anything is possible in these crazy times. After the leadership vote of no confidence by the ERG failed they have no way of changing the leader for 12 months unless she resigns so don’t rule it out given her historic defeat. I don’t think Parliament will allow a No Deal Brexit to happen I believe they will step and block it. But who the hell knows in these crazy times. I feel May will at some point resign.

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(Helen Wright) #6

I’ve developed an intense dislike for the words “clear” and “clearly”…! x :slight_smile:

It’s become quite clear that clearly those words mean sweet FA…!

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(Mat Davies) #7

Do you not think that after her last disastrous calling of a general election she is unlikely to be rash calling another one with just a 6 point lead.

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(Paul Flinders) #8

Nah, the Tories are scared shitless about a GE.

Most recent polling puts them neck-and-neck or slightly behind - these are the latest figures according t o http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/

Survation: CON 38%(-1), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc)
BMG: CON 36%(-1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 12%(nc), UKIP 6%(+2)

But, I agree, normal rules are out of the window so nothing is entirely implausible.

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(David Martin) #9

Boris seems to be very happy about tonight’s result. A pig in muck even.

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(Paul Flinders) #10

As I understand it to stop Brexit we’d need to either unilaterally rescind our A50 notification or ask the EU27 nicely if they will agree to an extension.

Plus we’d need to revoke the Withdrawal Act - or at leat pass new legislation cancelling the date.

It’s a tall order in the next 10 weeks and three days.

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(Jane Williamson) #11

He looked more like a lamb to the slaughter to me.

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(Véronique Langlands) #12

There is no need to agree anything if what the present government want is to crash out of the EU with no deal in place, as seems to be the case.

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(Brian Wheeler) #13

I didn’t think for one moment she will call one but she could be forced into one if the government collapses.

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(Graham Lees) #14

JC is able to call multiple no confidence votes.
The precedent is Margaret Thatcher when she was leader of the Opposition.
The suggestion is that the longer TM carries on, the more apparent it will be to the DUP they are backing a loser and eventually, they will vote to put the mare down to save it further pain.

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(carl tunnicliffe) #15

The DUP will back May to the hilt if it means keeping Corbyn out of no 10. There is no way the DUP will get into bed with Labour - they are poles apart in ideology.

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(David Martin) #16

Is there any other party with a similar ideology as the DUP?

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(Peter Goble) #17

Likud? :thinking::rage::zipper_mouth_face:

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(Paul Flinders) #18

Ian Dunt writes lucidly on the subject.

The problem, to summarise his argument, is that we are still in the situation where it is very hard to get a majority to agree on anything - unfortunately the default if we do nothing is to leave the EU at 23:00 on the 29th of March with no deal and only the restricted, strictly damage-limitation “transition” arrangements proposed by the EU and it will take positive action to prevent that happening.

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(Robert Hodge) #19

Parliament seems to have so many different factions wanting different things that it seems that there is unlikely to be a majority that can achieve much at all in the short time left before March 29th.
Perhaps what we need is a different Prime Minister who will have sufficient gusto to be able to lead the country into making the best from leaving the EU under WTO rules with the addition of a reciprocal agreement concerning Citizens Rights.

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(carl tunnicliffe) #20

May emphatically does not want another referendum. There is too much danger (as she sees it) of a decision to reverse the 2016 decision. She has staked her political reputation on delivering her version of what brexit should be and nothing will be allowed to divert that aim that is out of her control.

She may just bank on a general election and hope that she wins enough seats to gain a majority without the DUP and the ERG. One of the polls tonight has the Cons at +6 over Labour which should give her that. To me, that would be a very back-handed way of getting brexit through as a general election is fought over more issues than just brexit, however, were she to win, she would claim that ‘the people’ have backed her vision of brexit - whereas, most likely, they just didnt want a Corbyn led government!

There are two ways to put this to bed once and for all :

Cancel the whole brexit debacle on the grounds of National importance - but this would take someone with bigger gonads than anyone currently sitting in ‘that place’.

Hold another referendum with two options - leave with the current deal on the table (backstop and all - I would wager that most ordinary folk in the UK dont give two hoots about it) and remain as is. Those voting for the deal will know exactly what they are voting for and, I am sure, should the remain side lose again, then accept it they must because the facts are there for all to see.

Either way, ‘no deal’ HAS to be OFF the agenda and the uncertainty HAS to stop - it is affecting business in the UK as well as personal lives across the spectrum…even for those that cannot see it!

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