Maybe something to do with the huge drop in the polls for the Brexit party and increase for Tory’s I’m beginning to think Johnson may actually f***ing win this election!
I think he will, sadly. The opposition is not there to change people’s minds.
Possibly - there is all sorts of speculation from polling results to a back-room pact (perhaps with some input from “Donald”) to Farage not having the 650 candidates to contest every seat.
It is undoubtedly a help to the Tories as the BP was only ever likely to split the right wing vote rather than win a landslide of its own, it is a climbdown as Farage is now tacitly accepting Johnson’s deal - in fact all Brexiteers seem to be doing so, presumably because of the promise not to extend the transition period - although we have seen what happens to Boris’s claims for that sort of thing.
Whether the Labour party will respond by trying to woo the other parties which want a referendum remains to be seen, however I can’t actually see a pact emerging between them and the LibDems - which will probably see the Tories to a narrow victory.
But this time he really really means it - no honestly he does really mean it this time!
Utterly untrustworthy lier - I am very surprised that Farage has fallen for a promise from Johnson.
Pinky promise?
I suspect that, one way or another, he did not have much choice.
However, it make it harder to oust Johnson as the right wing have (mostly) defused the self-destruct device.
Of course it only helps the Tories retain the seats that they have got, not win others - but it’s not clear that there won’t be more of this to come.
I don’t think Farage’s Brexit party is going to win many seats, my hunch is two.
Again, it’s just a hunch with absolutely no psephological insight to back it up. But I think this election is going to be a battle of the two Titans: the Tories (the inglorious remnant that remains); and Corbyn’s Labour party, which is always IMO perennially and seriously underestimated by the media.
I reckon the Lib Dems will bag a ruinously small number of parliamentary seats. The main reason for their unpopularity (in my reckoning) is their untrustworthiness in office as demonstrated by their conduct in coalition.
Another factor is the unappealing figure of the LD leader Swinson.
She is IMO too stridently assertive about her readiness for high office; and too confident that a single issue Remain platform will raise her aloft to No 10.
Much of this campaign is being foolishly founded on the perceived frustration of the public around “getting this done”. I think this gravely misreads the mood of the nation.
What people want is to be involved in a collaborative and thoughtful exercise in reshaping society, and the workings of the political machinery, for the 21st century, about which literally no-one can be sure of its destiny.
We are not going to be fobbed off by promises of “wonderful things” that are going to be showered on us “when we get this thing over the line”, as Johnson patronisingly holds out to us. Almost everyone knows he is a philandering upper-class cheat who has schmoozed his unappetising way to what he sees as the pinnacle of fame and fawning admiration.
I think Jeremy Corbyn will do very well, and may form the next Government. I hope so, and he will have my vote, and my support for the formidable electoral movement that is Momentum, of which I am a member.
Memories are still fresh about the smear tactics of the Murdoch press in former years, and won’t be swayed again by McCarthyism and crude populism: “Let’s kick (Michael Foot’s) stick away!” (Kenny Everett 2012).
People are more canny these days, and can see a Cupid Stunt (Kenny Everett again) for what it is.
The relevance of the Brexit Party was always whether they would do more damage to the Tories or the Labour party (I briefly thought otherwise; thankfully I was wrong), it seems they have realised, late in the day but still just in time, that it was always going to be the Tories they would hurt most.
I have always felt this rather unfair - their manifesto promises were based on their forming a majority government on their own - the Conservative party always had the upper hand in the coalition. Arguably Clegg should have driven a harder bargain - or avoided coalition altogether and gone for a relationship which made it clear the policies came from the Tories but I guess he was too blinded by the chance at “government”.
It is a mistake the Lib Dems will not repeat - but perhaps they are now too wary of alliances at a time when they need them to succeed.
But this is a dammed if you do and dammed if you don’t situation - people do not (in the main) vote for shrinking violets.
The paradox of modern politics is that many lap up the lies and still support the liars. It seems that Johnson can shrug off sexual scandal, accusations of Russian influence, lies over his intentions Re: Brexit and more and come through unscathed; a mini-Trump who, let us not forget, was probably right about being able to shoot someone in Manhattan and still get elected.
Maybe yours are.
It seems that most voters’ attention spans manage a week at most and a few days or hours in some circumstances.
Right, that explains some stuff such as your over-positive view of Corbyn.
I will admit that he comes into his own much more as a campaigner - at least when he believes in what he is campaigning for (memories of his dismal performance in the Brexit campaign come to mind). But he did badly against May and it is hard to see how he will fair better against Johnson - who has more charisma than May ever did (not hard, since she has none) and has been schooled in the populist mission by Trump’s people.
Kenny Everett died in 1995
[quote=“MaryB, post:2388, topic:24053”] Peter_Goble:
crude populism: “Let’s kick (Michael Foot’s) stick away!” (Kenny Everett 2012).
Kenny Everett died in 1995
[/quote]
And Michael Foot in 2010.
@anon22869222, and @vero too, yes, I half-thought that date (2012) looked decidedly odd myself.
But I had half an eye on a Netflix series as I typed.
I’m obviously not up to multi-tasking.
I seriously doubt his much over-hyped ‘charisma’ - a term that has been bleached of any real meaning by its being prostituted by show-biz and the trashy press - cuts much ice these days.
People are more politically sophisticated now than in my living memory, and I’m not being sloppily sentimental about that. I think the worm has turned.
Indeed he made that speech at the 1983 Tory Party Conference the same speech where he said “and let’s bomb Russia!”
But manifestly it does
Be careful what you wish for, if it happens then you will regret it as will all others who voted for him. He is nothing more than a cabbage patch gummidge who cant make any desicion whether he will or he wont. IMO a pitiful figure of a person. Momentum member, wow I wouldnt be too quick to mention your fondness and association with this crowd. Terrorism falls to mind. !!!
With great sadness l am slowly coming to terms with a definitive Johnson victory and the inevitable destruction of any meaningful resistance on the part of the Labour Party.
Corbyn and his blinkered approach to modern politics makes him not only a distasteful choice for leadership but totally out of touch with the electorate. He could have achieved so much more for the movement if only he had stepped down once Johnson took the helm of the Tories - Keir Starmer or Hilary Benn would, IMO, given them a real run for their money.
Now with Farage running away from the fight and the so-called Remain Alliance in total disarray l won’t be surprised if the Conservatives get a healthy working majority. It could even be a landslide.
Corbyn and his followers will have a lot to answer for when they are unceremoniously dumped by the British electorate and seriously diminish the role of the Labour Parties future in British political discourse.
I for one won’t be sad to see the back of Corbyn - just another old self-serving apparatchik getting in the way of real progress.
Sad days indeed.
The Tories will have a majority of at least 30.
I admire your radicalism Peter - it’s obvious that Labour is the best choice, though I lack your confidence in the UK electorate - they have been known to do stupid things before!
But I admire your radicalism for a more profound reason (something I learned from the French existentialists, confirmed to me personally in his later years by Tony Benn, and that I have tested the truth of many times since): as you get older, it’s easy to let life’s inevitable disappointments and, sometimes, tragedies, turn you into a bitter and cynical distortion of your youthful dreams - hence all those right-wing ‘old gits’ that think the youthful momentum is their enemy. But people (like Corbyn?) who can retain their radicalism, optimism and commitment to make the world a better place into their later years have actually discovered one of the true springs of wisdom and happiness - to always, every day, try to be the person you wanted to be, to live in the way you once dreamed of, and not give way to that bitter and cynical distortion of your youthful hopes.
What a surprise you are a member of Momentum!
Now we can put your posts totally into context.
Paul, if you’re hoping for a Labour minority government, why are you considering burning your ballot paper ?
Surely ANYTHIMG is better than more of Boris (who we didn’t vote for anyway).
The British electorate have never been very politically motivated. Mostly because up until 2016, British politics was mind-numbingly dull. Well, that’s changed, and you’d have to have been living in a cave for the last three years not to have some idea of what’s going on in (and out) of Westminster. That said, most people, aside from bored OAPs, have a job and a life to get on with, and all this Brexit rubbish is an unwelcome threat to their way of life - which WILL change, whether you’re a Leaver or Remainer. So you can understand why the general sentiment is “Have done with it”. Perhaps it is only the MPs, big business, and the mendacious liars in and out of Parliament who truly understand the epic seriousness of what is about to happen (plus aforesaid bored OAPs). So a lot of people who don’t normally vote Tory may well do so this time for the above reason. Set against this is the fact that very many people recognise Boris for what he is - a grotesque and consummate liar. Maybe the one will offset the other ?
Farage is a damp squib, Support for the BP is minuscule and for UKIP has virtually vanished. After this election Farage will disappear.
Labour, unfortunately, suffers from JC, who is not exactly a towering figure. Unless they get into No 10 (unlikely) he is finished as leader. If Labour do well, it will be by default. He’s good as a campaigner and this time will, I’m sure, pull all the stops out because he knows his party will be rid of him if they flop. The big ?? is Swinson. She has her sex against her - the electorate don’t really like female leaders - but she, and the LDs, have been unequivocal in what they stand for, so they can’t really be accused of being disingenuous. The main thing they’ve always suffered from is the reluctance of voters to “waste” their vote on a small party - ignoring the fact that if more people voted for them, they’d be a whole lot more significant. Whatever happens, only a miracle will now save us from Brexit. Thankfully I no longer live in the UK so will only have to worry about registration and the exchange rate. Brits in the UK will be in for a very rocky road over the next decade.
Sorry for the rambling post, just wanted to let off steam.