Bye bye Boris

[barbara_deane1]

I did read today that Boris is resigning this year

[Griffin36]

What was your source ?

[tim17]

Did you mean ‘sauce’?

[ChrisK]

From a newsworthy source🤔

Boris Johnson to 'resign' in 2022 and 'third female PM' on the cards, author...

[Geof_Cox]

It’s pretty obvious that there’s a barely-concealed campaign for Truss going on in the Tory ranks/press, isn’t it?

[carlmt]

Truss as PM??? Oh for Christ’s sake - as if we don’t have enough problems already!!!

UK politics is just getting farcical now.

[almondbiscuit]

@carlmt

UK politics is just getting farcical now

Only now?

But yes totally agree about Truss

Happy New Year! Hope you can move to France soon!

[carlmt]

Happy New Year to you too Marijkeh!

Will be a few more years yet - but we have been at our house in Carmaux since the 14th December and will be heading back on the 9th January, so we have had a great 3 weeks or so to relax here this time!

[almondbiscuit]

Thanks. And great to hear you have been over and enjoying your stay!

[John_Scully]

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/david-frosts-resignation-shows-how-brexit-is-devouring-its-own-children

[Geof_Cox]

Surprisingly astute for Adonis John. Particulalry good to read his recognition that LibDem by-election wins are generally a sign that the Tories will win the next general election - disenchanted Tories feel safe enough to protest vote only when Labour is weak. This is the central problem for those (who I believe on occasion have included Adonis) advocating a ‘progressive alliance’ between Labour and the LibDems. Most winable LibDem seats are currently Tory, and any association of LibDems with Labour is likely to lose as many potential Tory swappers as it gains - as well as also losing on the left of course (this is why in general election campaigns LibDems always attack Labour harder - it’s how they gain Tory marginals).

The missing point of course is that by far the most popular choice of those eligible to vote in North Shropshire was not the LibDems, but ‘none of these’.

[billybutcher]

However - note the closing remarks:

The country wants a better Tory government—with or without Johnson—but it isn’t yet showing signs, in real elections, of wanting to vote for a Labour government. I remember all those SDP and Liberal by-election victories of the 1980s and early 1990s—followed by repeated Tory general election victories; the last of them, in 1992, under a new leader because Thatcher had become simply too unpopular and incompetent with the poll tax.

Starmer is getting slightly better but still, I think, has not got New Labour/Blairite levels of appeal (pre Iraq, obviously) and no “big idea” which is cutting through. Neither “Not Corbyn” nor “Not Johnson” will sustain him in the long run. Personally I don’t want another Tory government - at least not for the next 20-30 years but I think there is a danger of late 70’s style flip-flop politics which will be damaging iin itself.

@Geof_Cox

Particulalry good to read his recognition that LibDem by-election wins are generally a sign that the Tories will win the next general election

Ah, I see Geof beat me to picking out that point from Adonis’s article. I must type faster

[Mat_Davies]

@Geof_Cox

his recognition that LibDem by-election wins are generally a sign that the Tories will win the next general election

I would think it indicates people switching away from their traditional votes and indicates a change is coming rather than necessarily Tory. I would think people who normally vote Tory could vote for LibDems but are unlikely to vote for Labour and likewise also a traditional Labour voter could vote for LibDems but is unlikely to vote Tory.

[billybutcher]

Although I realise that “Vox Pop” interviews are actually a terrible way to gauge popular opinion - but there was as much or more “anti Johnson” feeling before the North Shropshite** by-election as there was anti-Tory feeling. If I were the LibDems I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet.

** This was a genuine typo - but somehow it seemed to fit, given that the constituency has been “true blue” for 200 years.

[Bettina]

if not Truss - perhaps Priti Patel?

[Geof_Cox]

@Mat_Davies

people who normally vote Tory could vote for LibDems but are unlikely to vote for Labour and likewise also a traditional Labour voter could vote for LibDems but is unlikely to vote Tory

Indeed - this is precisely what happens at by-elections, leading to the LibDems amazing success record - but it’s also why it generally doesn’t happen at general elections: when who governs is at stake people won’t risk the side they don’t want getting in. If the LibDems appear too close to either side they lose votes on the other. Similarly, if either the Tories or Labour appear too close to the LibDems, they lose votes on the further right or left, and enable the other side to win.

(This is my big reservation about Starmer - without the ‘big idea’ Billy spoke of he loses votes on the left, and so can’t win - especially as the Greens are on the ascendant everywhere - unless the Tories are so bad their more sensible voters stay at home in huge numbers. In North Shropshire well over half the electorate stayed at home. But if you only win by default you continue lame (like Macron who received less than a quarter of the votes in the first round - less than 3% more than LePen, who in turn had less than 2% more than the extreme left Mélenchon).

[Fleur]

@Geof_Cox

like Macron who received less than a quarter of the votes in the first round

Given that there were 11 candidates in 2017, and there are always two rounds, this is not a surprise. "Avec un scrutin majoritaire à deux tours, souvent un candidat n’ayant aucune chance de l’emporter exerce une influence décisive sur le résultat final. " You can see that happened in previous presidential elections, especially the one where J-M Le Pen got to the second round. I know you’re not keen on Macron Geof. But to be more accurate, one could say : in the first round of 2017 Emmanuel Macron won more votes than Marine Le Pen and they both qualified for the second tour (a whole new ball game). Votes for Melenchon and Fillon (around 20% each) for sure influenced Macron’s first round result. He of course became president (thank goodness).

[Geof_Cox]

Yes - you’re right of course Fleur - and La République en marche obviously did well subsequently too - but nevertheless the majority of Macron’s support was I think provisional - more anti-LePen than pro-Macron.

What I think is interesting across the world at present is the longing for escape from the old politics - and I think this is why both LePen and Macron ended up in the second round: both - in obviously very different ways - represented themselves as very different from the old centre-right and centre-left parties - much in fact like Corbyn in 2017 and Johnson in 2019 - and similar figures across the world.
Macron has revived a bit in the polls mainly I think as a result of the pandemic - he is seen as safe - but if and when it passes I think the frustration that his promised new politics has turned out pretty indistinguishable from the old politics will lose him lots of votes.

[tim17]

@Geof_Cox

Macron has revived a bit in the polls mainly I think as a result of the pandemic - he is seen as safe - but if and when it passes I think the frustration that his promised new politics has turned out pretty indistinguishable from the old politics will lose him lots of votes.

But that won’t be soon so he’ll be in power for another term, five more years of stagnation for France.

[Geof_Cox]

I’m not so sure about Macron winning next year Tim - sorry - this year!
I know @strudball thinks Zemmour and LePen might shoot each other, and let Pécresse through - in which case a Pécresse-Macron second round would be a less foregone conclusion, because Macron, assuming a re-run of last time, has tended to take the left vote in the second round for granted - and I’m not sure Pécresse will be seen by the left as so bad they have to turn out and vote for Macron (my leftist neighbour here was a ‘vote blanc’ even last time).