France for Xmas

I can thankfully still refer to my nephew in the present tense. In April this year he was a strapping healthy 40 year old prison officer just doing his job. He then spent 3 weeks in intensive care and many weeks later is still recovering having only just been allowed to return to work on part time desk duties.
Covid is not just death and statistics seen daily on the TV . They were/are real people like you and me and it is everyone’s responsibility to protect each other. Wearing a mask certainly helps but to suggest that this action should allow us to return to a normal life is in my opinion wreckless and irresponsible and perhaps just one of the reasons that as yet the battle isnt won.
Our daughter in law is a nurse on a covid ward and she and our son now sleep separately to avoid any possible contamination. Our daughters and son in law are all teachers who have no choice but to turn up at their schools and teach their BUBBLE while seeing pupils coming and going because of isolation. Masks are worn but covid is smart and ignores them.
Hopefully we can all get back to normality soon but not yet and remember that there are hundreds of thousands that dont now have that to look forward to.
I am sorry if my views dont concur with others but I shall continue to be as responsible as France has asked me to be.

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Exactly so travel shouldn’t be restricted for those that pass the covid test and mixing and mingling is the point, once tested and result is known that should allow sensible mixing.
There is no Gov data data shown to balance the usual annual risk from flu and hospital deaths are way down because deaths at home are way up from heart attacks, strokes and cancer when usually help would have been sought from Hospitals.

If that doesnt prove lockdown (or in this case lockup) doesnt work or that would surely not have occurred? Not being glib but there is a point there.

Just become a teacher in lycée, we are immune dontchaknow :grin::grin::grin: we don’t have bubbles etc

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I hadn’t realised you are a denier. You can test negative one day and catch it the next, and the reliability of the tests is not 100%. The big excess mortality rates are not just due to untreated cancers and so on. I prefer not to have to live in lockdown, but that demands that people behave responsibly and they are not.

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No not a denier! Far from it. If we follow your logic what should we do because one day no the next yes is not dependent on where you went and what you did? Test not 100% should we not bother testing at all? Just wait for economies to bankrupt? We have to take reasonable precautions but also keep going.
My terrace house in the Uk feet from neighbours, my place in France 1/4 of a mile from nearest house. Travel, only get out the car for the call of nature or stretch legs.what’s the risk? Minimal.

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It is easy for any one individual to say that they should be a special case for reason x or y, but the issue to me is that we have to think at a societal level. So I don’t move, and neither do my neighbours. If I move, why shouldn’t my neighbours… people are not respecting the lockdown because they see other people not respecting the lockdown. After/if the lockdown is eased I personally feel people should stick to essential movements only until the numbers are right down again, otherwise it will bubble up again in weeks as it did before.

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Sadly once the numbers come down and restrictions lessen the numbers just go back up a bit. The point being its treatable but we must not overload the hospitals. With the loss of 600 people the other month to other causes leading to death in their own homes we are all focused on just covid and exclude that an average year we lose 11000 to flu alone. No masks or distancing there and covid isnt that far from flu.

https://youtu.be/ZeqGtyptonI

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Surely we are going to find that flu numbers go down if people are wearing masks and socially distancing and washing their hands?

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Yes you would expect that but have we ever done that in any previous year except Spanish flu.
Public Health England should be ashamed of themselves for the really bad bending of the graphs and lack of scientific data. There is considerable anger in the scientific community towards how wrong they are getting this.

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Sorry - this is dangerous poppycock

Herd immunity through natural infection has been thoroughly discredited as a strategy for dealing with Covid - to quote the Lancet

The idea that you can selectively shield “the vulnerable” has also been debunked - the elderly cannot be isolated from their families and carers.

Hopefully we will see the introduction of vaccines from next spring or early summer; that is the correct way to deal with this disease, lockdown buys time and saves lives but it is not enough on its own.

But “herd immunity” by letting the disease run through the whole population is another way of saying “lets let it kill a couple of hundred thousand people and then pretend it never happened”.

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Thanks Paul, yet Sweden still continues to show a different set of statistics. But early on they did make a mistake with care homes to.

Not so sure about that.

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That graph looks bad as the figures were so low before. If you overlaid it with the seasonal respiratory illnesses that naturaly show a seasonal spike in the autumn would it look as bad. From the you tube (Ivor Cummings) video it appears not.

Sorry John,but when it comes to things like this I would rather listen to a doctor than a swimming pool expert

Me too but if you have a problem with me putting up doctors videos to show the real data rather than the Chris Whitty model where were the 50,000 deaths he predicted?
I am just opening up the conversation.

The UK has had 50,000 deaths

I think John is referring to 2nd wave deaths.

We’ve had 11515 added to the official death total in the last 3 months which seems enough for me (in fact too many by, er, 11515).

It was a worst case scenario based on a pessimistic estimation of the doubling time - I felt it a bit high at the time but I suspect he was trying to get his point across.

That said it annoys me somewhat that when an estimation like this, made by someone who actually understands what exponential growth can do in terms of cases and deaths is a bit wrong we get a lot of backlash from people who did not understand the numbers well. Probably the UK lockdowns have slowed things a bit - and saved lives as a result - even if they have not convincingly turned them around fully yet.

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