But with the UK so broken, does the Government have the bandwidth for more negotiations?
The penny has dropped that Brexit was never going to solve UK immigration.
Unfortunately much too late as we have a government which is still firmly shackled to the ridiculous notion that Brexit can somehow be made a success and running scared of negative press from the likes of Farage.
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I donât think this is really true - I would say rather that they feel that awakening the dragon of the Brexit argument is not worth doing until public opinion has fully swung in the direction of ârejoinâ.
I believe they are taking the pragmatic approach of pursuing small steps that can be achieved on a shortish timescale in improving relations with the EU, and getting non-contentious deals done on things like aligning veterinary standards and mutual recognition of professional qualifications, rather than going the whole hog from the outset which more than likely would fail.
It would in any case be fruitless unless and until the Tories changing their tune on the topic as well - the EU is not going to start rejoin negotiations with a nation where the official Opposition will simply cancel the process if they get in again in five yearsâ time.
I too was disappointed that Labour did not put rejoining at the head of their agenda, but I think their reasons for not doing so are wise. At the next election, if they manage to fix at least some of the damage the Tories did, then they can put it forward. And if they can point to deals X Y and Z that they have done with the EU that show how closer alignment has been of practical benefit, it will make the case for Rejoin easier for those who voted Leave to accept.
And Time is a great healer - IMHO it will need more years to pass before rejoining comes to be seen as the obvious thing to do, much as I personally would like it to happen tomorrow.
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The Tories and Reform do not need to change their opinion.
What matters is that the majority of voters change.
The Tories are a busted flush and when we see what Farageâs friend gets up to with his trade tariffs, hhis party will not be so popular either.
You are judged by the company you keep.
Dont write off Farage and his ilk so quickly Jane - there are enough disgruntled voters who dont âthinkâ who would be happy to âgive him a chanceâ. Their rationale being that the mainstream parties dont seem to be able to sort things - lets try this one!
All his (Farage) talk of forming the next Government may be so much bullshit, but the one after that? It has a possibility - if Labour dont improve the lives of the âdisaffectedââŚand that they can FEEL that their lives have improved.
My money is on Labour winning the next GE, but with a reduced majority, and then legislating for a form of proportional representation for the following GE.
Quite agree - the only reason Labour won (on a smaller absolute vote and only fractionally larger percentage than Corbyn had been able to achieve in 2019) was that Farage split the RW vote. It is quite possible the RW vote will not split next time, it is even possible the RW vote could coalesce around Farage and Reform not around whatever is left of the Conservatives by 2029.
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Odds on Farrage dropped from 25:1 to 9:1, last time I looked. Disgruntlement could see him win.
I wish we could simply dismiss the odious MP for Clacton as a flash in the pan. Sadly I fear his influence will increase.
This article will not help with your insomniaâŚ
The last comments I read from the EU side were along the lines of, until the UK has fully met its commitments under the current agreement and shown signs of trustworthiness and good faith, there is no prospect of reopening negotiations.
I believe for instance the Windsor framework is still not fully operational, there have been delays and excuses as usual. The EU is being patient but the UK is not helping its cause by showing itself to be still struggling with internal in-fighting and incapable of keeping promises. That is not the kind of partner the EU wants. Especially when the separate EU countries- Germany, France but not only - have enough domestic problems to worry about.
Thereâs an ongoing and slightly irritating assumption in much of the UK press that any decision to rejoin the EU would be primarily down to the UK government and electorate. This seems to me a continuation of the arrogant us and them attitude that informed so much of the Brexit debate.
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Indeed, but this article is saying that the man on the Tiergarten or Bois de Boulogne omnibus is more tolerant than EU politicians on that. As is the man on the Clapham omnibus vs UK politicians on the need to reengage.
Now, while IMO is vital for the UK to engage, the EU has bigger fish to fry.
As you imply the difference, and quite rightly, is that Britain rejoining the EU isnât the most pressing matter for most Europeans and their governments.
Iâm seventy-two and voted for the UK to enter Europe half a century ago, Iâm currently in good health, but unfortunately canât envisage anything similar in my lifetime. The UKâs isolationist / go it aloneness mentality is a bit like that of that other Atlantic island nation, Iceland, but unlike Iceland, which for centuries was a squalid hole, the UK is further bogged down by the weight of history and its former imperial grandeur.
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Too true, in a section of the population the reality hasnât really set in yet, despite the passage of time. I do think the UK has been punching above its weight for decades, and all due respect to the diplomats responsible for that, but it isnât going to last. Being the trans Atlantic political bridge was just another benefit lost with Brexit.
It was a big one that people didnât just see, or werenât sufficiently able to appreciate that aspect of its role, particularly how it benefitted Europe and how that was perceived by other European nations. So much was thrown awayâŚ
.
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So true, and we should never forgive those responsible. They knew what they were doing.
And yet even now, we donât really read any discussion of that.
Bastards!
There are two reasons why Farage probably wonât form a government in the foreseeable future.
One: his âpartyâ doesnât have the boots on the ground that the other parties have. Tories and Labour and the Lib Dems and the Nationalist parties have long-standing local party organisations with deep local roots (including in local government) and plenty of volunteers to canvas, distribute leaflets and generally get out the vote.
Reform is a TV party - it makes a lot of noise in the media but it doesnât give two hoots about local issues and has no infrastructure at a local level. Itâs good for a protest vote but when people come to choose a government they will expect it to have actual policies and address their local concerns.
Two: Farage is fundamentally lazy - he couldnât be bothered to do any work as an MEP, heâs spending more time in the USA than in the House of Commons and I don;t think his constituents have seen him once.
The idea of doing an honest dayâs work (let alone five years) as Prime Minister doesnât appeal to him.
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Made me smile.
My go to word I shout at the tv when watching news items of those who think violence through war or other means is the answer.
Interesting that Reform has then won a by-election ?
In ânormalâ times I would agree 100% - even now I probably agree with the crux of your points about Reform.
BUT - these are not ânormalâ times. People are feeling besieged by world events and becoming disillusioned with the mainstream parties, populists come along with apparently simple answers which are superficially attractive and might even come with a degree of âfeel good factorâ in the short term - for example Trumpâs âdrill baby drillâ policy might well provide an immediate boost to the US economy by lowering fuel prices (long term of course it is madness).
We also donât know that Farageâs game plan is not to ditch Reform and come back to the Tory fold. OK he would be a feckless and lazy leader but he is a charismatic politician that (bizarrely IMO) somehow is seen as having a âcommon touchâ (a con, if you ask me, but my opinion doesnât count for anything). In many ways he is a similar character to Johnson - the Tories wouldnât make that mistake again I suspect but they might well be tempted to make almost âthat mistake again with another leader.
I donât think weâve seen the end of Farage as a threat to the UK - by a long chalk.
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