A âmeaningful voteâ on her deal by Tuesday 12 March.
If the government does not win that vote, it will table a motion to be voted on by 13 March at the latest asking MPs if they approve leaving the EU with no deal.
If MPs reject leaving with no deal in that vote, she will give them a vote on 14 March on whether parliament wants a short, limited extension to article 50. If MPs pass that motion, the government will seek to get that extension.
My flabber has not quite been so gasted in a long while.
Keep yer flabber in check yet Paul - remember; the EU have intimated that they are unlikely to agree to short extensions of A50 - and TM knows this full well. This is just another ploy to offer a sop in the fog and hope nobody notices.
If they vote for an extension, I see the EU saying ânonââŚunless it is of at least a yearâŚand TM coming back and saying âsorry guys, I triedâŚbut you know what these foreign johnnies are like. Right, no deal is a no-no, extending A50 by a few months cannot be done, there will be no Peoples VoteâŚNOW will you vote for MY deal???â
I am just about ready to throw up. I am sick of hearing her say âwill of the peopleâ and âwe must listen to what the Leave voters wantâ⌠WHAT ABOUT WHAT THE REMAIN VOTERS WANT YOU IMPENETRABLE DOLT!!!
Just the fact that she has offered three clear motions, in quick succession is something to praise after everything we have been through. Itâs something of a turn-around for her to even offer parliament the chance to vote for an extension.
The offer of an extension comes with further work to determine how much time to request of the EU27 - so she could be overruled on the âshortest possibleâ extension.
Logically I would expect:
Rejection of Mayâs deal - it was too comprehensively rejected last time and I think the Labour whip will still be against her deal. I think she is now trying to force the ERG on board by allowing potential rejection of no deal, hoping they will back her deal fearing the alternative is becoming âno Brexitâ but she has weakened her own hand if thatâs now her ploy with the âshortest possible extension commentâ - that wonât change much as you observe and JRM certainly knows it to be the case so he has come out saying the ERG still wonât be backing Mayâs deal.
Rejection of no deal - Iâd be surprised if there suddenly turns out to be a parliamentary majority in favour of no deal.
Extension - I have no idea how this will go. Likely to get support I expect, the crucial question then becomes âfor how longâ, as noted above.
Article 50 trumps everything I think, you can ask for an extension but the EU have to agree or you can revoke but the date of the 29th of March is fixed regardless.
I fervently hope, and have a sneaky suspicion - probably more hope! - that the EU will reject a short extension believing that there is no stomach for crashing out on 29 March and that Parliament will revoke A50 entirely.
If there was any sanity in this dogâs breakfast of a situation it would be that A50 is revoked so that SERIOUS negotiations can be conducted with the EU, an agreed deal is formulated and that THAT deal is brought back to the voters : vote on a KNOWN deal (warts and all) or stay in the EU. Lets face it, ANY deal the UK gets to leave will never be as good as staying in the EU - the EU would not countenance any deal that betters membership otherwise the whole EU project is dead.
The danger of a short extension without participating in the EU elections is that there will be no opportunity to extend further after that - it moves the cliff edge a bit but it is still there. I still think that it is refreshing that a clear plan has been laid out but, as they say - the leopard does not change its spots; ultimately I think this is more classic May can-kicking - weâll get to the end of June or July with no scope for anything but Mayâs deal or no deal.
Thank you Martin,
You are not the only one who has noticed.
I do resent being lectured by our self appointed guru.
My own experience is my guide.
Once again thanks for your kind words, it is much appreciated.
Sheâs done this to avoid cabinet resignations.
Didnât the ERG say that itâs getting close to ending her premiership?
If it walks like a duck she does) and quacks like a duck (she does) then it is a duck.
Someone should have broken that pool cue over her head (or rammed it up her ass).
It was quite revealing that on the Politics Programme on BBC 2 this lunchtime, the founder of Mumsâ Net which had conducted a poll on Brexit found that 22% of mums had changed from Leave to Remain.
We only hear from those who are vocal, perhaps there is a real silent majority who have changed their minds .
Perhaps TM knows this and that she is why she is so adamant that a Peopleâs Vote will never happen.
She has been pushed further than she ever wanted to go and I think that there is a momentum, (joke) growing in the country for sanity to prevail.
Back in the Commons the Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards asks May to confirm that, under her plan, if MPs vote to rule out no deal, and vote for an extension, the government will then enter an extension with no deal again an option. This is âswimming round in circlesâ, he says.
Having looked again at your post Martin, I totally agree.
My mother always had to make âallowancesâ for my sister. It ruined her marriage and nobody wanted to play with me because of my sister, she was always allowed to get her own way.
Jane thatâs interesting the had professor Curtis the pollster guy in Radio 4 this morning he said the currently polling is around 53% remain 46% leave so still far from decisive. Itâs hard to know which way the vote would go it could largely depend on who is allowed to vote this time. I think 16 year olds upwards as itâs their future and all expats who have the inherent right to etc. A compulsory vote would be great but I donât think theyâd go that far. Alas I do fear a public vote may not make it any clearer however the key thing should be itâs a decisive vote not an advisory one. So whoever wins thatâs it thatâs the majority decision and thatâs what is enacted. Yes it will still devide the country it will rumble on but the key thing is it confirms 100% the will of the public in a biding vote our political representatives have to enact as it will be law they do. It ties the governments hands from any more wriggling. But and itâs a key factor the question in the referendum has to be very very clear and avoid any ambiguity. No deal exit, Mays deal exit, remain.
Personally I hope the whole thing fails and we stay in the EU just as we are. Itâs 100% selfish on my part as the effects on my move to France are really hard to fathom at present as my move is planned for 4 years time. So planning for the future is so hard. But we all have our reasons for or against. I donât judge anyone for how they vote or which side they come down on. Itâs very personal to us all, no one is right or wrong we just have different views of it and how it does or doesnât affect our lives.
Having just sat through an hour+ of May actually saying nothing substantial I think she may have âStockholm Syndromeâ - captive for so long by so many conflicting terrorist groups she is only capable of endlessly repeating inconsistent propaganda.
Mrs May will eventually get her vote through mainly because when all the other avenues have been explored, the majority of MPs do not want a second referendum and so will settle for the lesser of two evils.
Interesting (for me anyway) that the SNP stated they are preparing ther candidates for the European elections which is amazing as the UK wonât be standing in them !