Another classic mashup
I see they just got trounced in a couple of supposedly safe seats in yesterday’s by-elections:joy:
I can’t stop watching this clip of the Tory candidate and his partner…
Good riddance to a load of bad rubbish and the worst set of self-serving MP’s ever. The people have spoken
I would be a little hesitant about the Tories losing by a landslide at this stage. From the BBC:
In Tamworth, 36% of constituents turned up to vote at this by-election. To put that into context; in the last 2019 election, there was a 64.3% voter turnout in that constituency.
Mid Bedfordshire had 44% voter turnout this time around, compared to 73.7% in 2019.
So all it took was for a lot of Tory voters to stay away in disgust (understandably) and there’s suddenly an appart massive swing to labour. At the next GE those same voters may well feel ‘message sent’ and return to vote in their candidate of choice. Probably best to save the celebrations until after your party of choice is in office.
Much as I wish it weren’t so, I would tend to agree. Having said that, given that these were in something like the top 60 safe seats, I do think the Tories have a mountain to climb to have any hope of retaining power and that Sunak is short of a rope and a pair of crampons.
For Mid-Beds, I think it’s possible the Tories could win it back at a GE. For Tamworth, however, it’s less clear cut. The Tories have only held that seat since 2005 (compared to 1931 for Mid-Beds).
I wonder if Sunak delaying the General Election as much as possible may play in to the hands of the new MPs, as it gives them more time to prove themselves to their constituents and the Tory party in general more time to implode.
I think Sunak has two options, delay a GE until late next year so the Tories stay in power as long as possible in the vain hope that the economy turns around or have a Spring budget giveaway and go for a May election and gamble that enough voters will be swayed by some extra money in their pockets to keep him in No.10. Not sure either option will make any difference as they’re toast IMO, the latter may offer some damage limitation but that’s about all.
A massive Tory vote of disapproval by the old faithful abstaining by staying at home. Thr Tories will regroup after the next election with a new leader (Penny Maurdant ?) and rebuild for 2029. That’s assuming Rishi survives that long without calling an early election…
I suspect this phase might be painful and they go through a few more of the extreme tendency before they find one that appeals to the entire electorate and not just the party members.
I’ve only just realised that Sunak’s trip to Israel was timed to coincide with these by-elections… so it made the newspapers front pages today and was the leading story on last night’s 10 o’clock news / Newsnight. Or am I being cynical?
Basically, yes - but it is likely most of that disgust will persist until the next election.
There is, however, definite evidence of tactical voting - almost certainly why the Lib-Dem vote “collapsed” in Tamworth (just as well as the Tory candidate might have squeezed through otherwise) which is encouraging.
The real problem is not whether the Tories loose but by how much - they need to be anhilated IMO, the secondary problem is how much scorched earth they leave Labour because there is a real danger that the electorate’s collective memry might be short enough to re-elect them in 2029/30
You’re not the one being cynical at all and large swathes of the press would put his visit to the parish jumble sale on the front pages if it helped to distract from the result.
In these 2 seats I expect the previously Tory voters to come out and vote again the same way, because sending a message is fine, but a lot of people did that for Brexit and we know how that went.
The road back for the Tories is going to be long and painful, many of the current longstanding MP’s are quitting so it will be a case of who’s left when choosing a new leader because Sunak will be gone after they lose the election. It’s not hard to see Labour being in power until the 2030’s unless they make a complete mess of the opportunity that’s coming their way.
It’s how politics works, it’s cyclical. An up and down business or a roller coaster of failed promises , disillusion and exasperation. Witness the successes of Mrs T, Blair and Boris etc. The Tories will be back when the Labour Party has made themselves unpopular either in 2029 or 2034.
Deep down, even the most loyal Tory commentators réalise it’s time for a change.
I think Johnson (I refuse to use his stage name) was more of a snapped bungee jump than a roller coaster to be honest. So much was promised and so little delivered.
Just done a quick calculation. There was no swing to Labout as some would have it. The Labour vote dropped by 156 from 13,872 to 14,028, and they only won because the Tory vote dropped from over 38,000 to over 12,000
Hardly something for Labour to crow about and if anything an encouragement for the Tories, who might justifiably think, that their supporters will take it seriously next time.
Alternatively they couldn’t be bothered to support the current Tory party - ie they also don’t really like them.