35% to 38% of first-round voting intentions at the moment.
Immediately prior to the 2022 election, the figure was 22% - 26%.
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I am muting this thread for my mental health.
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Agreed. 
Wikipedia have got a page with lots of info on current polling for the 2027 election. Opinion polling for the 2027 French presidential election - Wikipedia
38 is a fair way from 50 though.
Quite - but itâs close enough that I would not discount the idea of Le Pen as president next year.
Sheâll have to win it in the first round to achieve it though. If it goes to a second round then a lot of clothes-pegs on noses would probably defeat her.
There doesnât seem to be an obvious challenger, and certainly not one with wide appeal. Melenchon is running second; if itâs a choice between her and him in a second round, I canât see him succeeding. The extreme Left has had its day, I think, and he will repel more than attract.
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From Reuters
- Le Pen would top the first-round vote with either 37% or â38% depending on the scenarios tested by pollster Odoxa âin a survey carried out among 12,000 people â between September 24 and October 7.
- Melenchon would come second âwith 18% or 18.5% in each of the two scenarios.
- Both âwere tested against one centrist candidate comprising either Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal, both of whom are former Prime Ministers of Emmanuel Macron. âPhilippe is seen getting 17% of the votes, while âAttal would get only 11%.
- Le Pen is seen beating Melenchon easily âin â a run-off and also winning, albeit with a more narrow margin, if she faced Philippe.
That is one survey and there is a long way to go, but it is not an outlier.
The current student protests?
Will they open peoples eyes to injustices and gain sympathy for the left?
or
Gain support for law and order and votes for a âstrongâ right wing leader?
I donât bet on politics and nothing suggests now is a good time to start!
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I donât know anywhere near enough about Le Pen or her policies, but support for Law and Order always seems like a pretty good place to start.
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Law and order is what right wing populists shout about. Not necessarily what they deliver.
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Well if you are waking up to some of the mess that I have seen on TV, or your business was looted, it probably does sound pretty appealing.
Her spokespeople have been decidedly sat precariously on the fence this week about the protests, not wanting to diss the forces of law and order, whilst at the same time fanning the flames of peopleâs discontent with the current situation and blaming it on any scapegoat that comes to mind and serves their purpose, be it the EU or migrants.
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Call me old fashioned, but when people are looting I blame the looters.
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Fair comment.
And when funds are embezzeled and the guilty are sentenced to fines and prison, I do not consider them to be suitable arbiters of law and order.
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This is an interesting set of contradictions. As an outsider I see burning and looting as traditional forms of French protest. Itâs hard to see that people would really want a law and order party that would crack down hard on protesters.
Itâs not the real protestors that are the problem, itâs the âblack blocs or casseursâ mostly young men with no purpose in life and from the big city ghettoes that are the problem. If you are a peaceful protestor then you would not need to mask up and wear hoods so that you cannot be recognised on CCTV etc. I am sure no law abiding citizens would burn down a tourist office or wreck a major town hall like yesterday, same with the LycĂ©es as they still have to attend if they wish to take exams.
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Agreed. Iâve got nothing against protesters but these arenât protesters, they are rioters.
Weâre watching the news and my missus just said, âils ont mĂȘme pas le courage dâassumer leurs actionsâ which sums up my feelings.
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The Conservatives banged that drum for a couple of decades and delivered neither.
My neck of the woods tends to the Right anyway, but based on chatting to people who I would usually regard as balanced and sensible, I think Le Pen is in with the best chance sheâs ever had.
Her first round result in 2012 was 17.9%, in 2017 it was 21.3% followed by 33.9% in the second round. In 2022 she won 23.15% in the first round and 41.45% in the runoff against Macronâs 58.55%.
So, 17.8%, 21.3% and 23.15 first round progression, and 33.9% to 41.45% in the second round.
I donât want hard Left or hard Right, but there doesnât seem to be a viable middle ground candidate on the horizon for voters to cluster around after their first round protest vote.
So which would be worse, hard Left or Hard Right? Both could do enough damage so that some may not want to live here anymore 