Wow, I didn’t expect this…
https://x.com/EmmanuelMacron/status/1799879000879423772?t=JBVx_MZ9rk62eXjvc-NK6w&s=19
Is this calling the bluff of the French population?
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I think so. A “make my day” moment? I hope it works.
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Is Macron allowed to stand for President again?
Very smart.
I’m not very knowledgeable on French political structures - though I intend to remedy this - but am I right in thinking Marcron is here till 2027 in current role - even if l’Assemblée Nationale is dissolved and there is an election?
This is very smart as I expect the next 3 years to be bumpy internationally especially in Europe (Mr. P. threat in all sorts of ways and American involvement that we need, but not in the way we’re getting it) and also domestically with the rise of the right when many voters have not experienced it.
So calling an election now at this time of this year does indeed seem to offer the chance of a solid mandate and more ability to consistently execute national policies by a fresh mandate with longer to run.
Maybe I’m a fool but I trust Macron when he says he is doing this for France, and why.
I just feel quite bitter that I am here in this community with a commitment to France and Europe and I can’t vote.
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Nope.
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If Macron is safe until 2027, this could be a very clever move. If RN get in on a wave of nationalism, then they will have three years to prove just how bad things can get under them.
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The RN don’t need a big wave as they already do very well in the countryside. It’s the disgruntled urbanites that they need to win over.
Your right, the country is generally very pro RN. I’m quite pleased that although several neighbouring communes here voted strongly RN in the last elections, our commune definitely didn’t.
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I’m not sure that calling an election when the far right is on the rise is a good idea.
Maybe I’ll have to return to a socialist UK…
or perhaps be sent back by an anti-immigrant French government.
You and me both, but I also trust Macron and I also think this is clever, courageous and clever. I too wish I’d a vote to support him.
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Better to call it when they are on the rise than when they have risen. Sort of the inverse of Starmer’s clever question to Sunak, “if you thought the economy was going to get better, why would you call a GE now?”
Win, loose or draw, this is realpolitik IMO, not Starmer’s don’t offend anybody strategy. It’s politics with balls 
Go for it Manu 
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Is it possible the parties who dislike Macron but despise the RN might be pursuaded to cooperate in a united front? I wonder what it would take for the French to vote to stop free movement of EU citizens. That is what I am personally dependent on from what I understand with a spouse who is an EU passport holder. I’ve read France is a socialist country. How is that reconciled with a desire to move to the right?
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Where? I don’t think we have been for a while.
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Yes.
Equally those who dislike Macron / Renaissance will gravitate towards Le Pen / RN.
The alternative, which Macron will have clearly considered, is to amble along as things currently are, with RN increasing in popularity (because they just have to talk the talk without needing to worry about actually governing a country). This has the very real potential of Le Pen winning the presidential elections and Bardella winning the parliamentary elections - which would be disastrous.
This way, even if RN win the election in July, Macron is still president until 2027 so can make things very difficult for Bardella.
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That would require Frexit. One good thing about Brexit, probably the only one, is that after seeing the results, only a smattering of lunatic politicions are calling for a Frexit. Better to be inside the tent…
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good analysis.
from the gruaniad, confirming your leader 
"Sunday’s dramatic move, however, is a huge gamble: Macron’s party could suffer yet more losses, effectively hobbling the rest of his presidential term and potentially handing Marine Le Pen even more power. The president has presented it as an existential choice for French voters: do you really want to be governed by the far right?
It seems unlikely that he is counting on securing a majority: the front républicain, or republican front, that blocked RN’s advance in the past has weakened almost to the point of disappearance, and Macron’s popularity is in steady decline.
Most analysts, however, predict that while the far-right party may emerge with more MPs, it will probably not win enough seats to give it a majority either – meaning the next parliament may be even messier and more ineffective than the current one.
It could be that he is looking at a neutralising “cohabitation effect”. If RN were to score well and, for example, Bardella were offered the job of prime minister, two and a half years in government may be just enough time to render the far right unpopular too."
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updated this morning
Yes, but not until 2032.
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