Negotiations to facilitate youth mobility between EU & UK

So 16 years for a referendum plus several more negotiating entry terms which won’t be straightforward, how many of us will still be alive?

I wonder if, in 16 years’ time, the UK will have finally implemented those border controls for imports from the EU…? :thinking:

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/ashford/news/biosecurity-checks-to-start-despite-fears-kent-site-off-m2-305721/

Very few. It will take a generation to complete, if it ever happens, unless there’s a catastrophic war that begins to engulf eastern Europe & rapidly heading west, in which case petty differences may have to be set aside.

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I’m a bit more optimistic - I don;t think it’ll be 16 years, maybe more like 6 (beginning of the next Parliament), and there’s no reason why negotiations couldn’t happen in advance of a referendum - in fact they are probably more likely to, as the last referendum gave the nod to Brexit with absolutely nobody being sure what it would entail - Vote Leave didn’t expect to win and had no plan, and Vote Remain of course imagined the referendum would render the whole question moot.

I think any Government proposing to take us back in would get their ducks in a row first, put the details in an election manifesto, and then have a referendum.

But OK 6 years is perhaps optimistic.

Anyhow much as I want rejoining to happen, I’m not going to hang about waiting for it, I intend to move to France under the current rules as soon as the stars align for me to do so.

I keep circling back to the same question that no one can answer and is the most important thing -

Does the EU really want us back?

Yes I think they do - The UK is still a nation with a fair amount of world influence, and I believe there is still a lot of goodwill towards us in Europe, despite the damage done to the UK’s reputation over the last six years. Not universally of course, but in many quarters. Many of the EU’s core ideas were influenced or even initiated by British input - not least among them (and very ironically) the idea of the Single Market, which despite the lunacy of her successors was something that Margaret Thatcher keenly championed.

We would also be a net contributor to the EU budget if we rejoined (more than we were before since we would not get the “opt-outs” the UK had previously).

And what could be a better advert for the EU as an institution than for the Prodigal Son to come back home and be forgiven? :smiley:

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Any evidence to back that up?

Barnier has said publicly that the door remains open.

Sadly I think the potential events @Ancient_Mariner mentioned might be a sooner occurring excuse for rapprochement.

I am not sure if this time we can rely on the Americans to physically help either (though they might sell, sorry I mean send, equipment). The name Nato may get tested closer and sooner than we might have hoped. But we’re not Palestinians so perhaps it would be easier for the US to intervene to help without conflict of domestic interest

I for one am grateful to the US for their interventions locally in the last century. Although there may have been some returns to America from some of the conflicts elsewhere they’ve been involved in, families in the US must have got sick of seeing body bags come home from service in other places.

I’m sure the outcome for Europe will be significantly affected by the US election outcome. A Trump presidency will likely mean they effectively stop supporting others apart from Israel and NATO may well cease to be effective. If Europe can’t step up to replace them then we should expect war to spread, even if a temporary peace is negotiated in Ukraine.

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He’s left the EU and is seen by some as a ‘Eurosceptic’ now.

Does the eu want the uk back, well that would depend on many things. I am sure it would be delighted to welcome a uk that shared eu values and ambitions. It would not welcome a jingoistic uk that is increasingly stiflling human rights, equality and democracy and only wants to rejoin the eu for selfseeking reasons.

But I do not see any British prime minister being keen to stand up in the near future and tell the nation that it is going to adopt the euro.

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If the EU really is determined to have ever-closer unity then that is increasingly likely to make rejoining unattractive. However UI suspect the EU is very likely to find some of its member states becoming less European in outlook as they are drawn towards Moscow’s orbit. Also with a rise in nationalism, ever closer unity may prove too difficult, and possibly even destructive.

And yes, the Euro is going to be a colossal sticking point, because that really is giving up sovereignty.

That’s even less likely than ever!

And IMO rejoining the EU in the coming decades is almost as remote a prospect. There may well be a defence pact in the coming years, but I can’t imagine there being one for free trade.

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Personally I couldn’t give a hoot about maintaining the £, and I enjoy the freedom and convenience of being able to use a single currency across different countries. Perhaps this is because I rarely use bank coins and notes, as I pay for things using a card / NFC.

Even when sharing the bill amongst friends at restaurants, we all use Paylib to transfer money to one another. I don’t care what the currency is called and there’s no picture of any monarchs on pieces of paper when using digital methods.

All of our friends are the same age roughly as me, so I wonder if it’s a generational thing. I must ask my French mother-in-law how she feels about no longer using the Franc, as she’s in her 70s now.

Nonetheless, I can see a way around this that keeps the Daily Mail brigade happy. The following countries are all EU members yet do not use the €:

  • Bulgaria
  • Czechia
  • Hungary
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Sweden

I’ve purposefully not included Denmark in the list because they are exempt, but that ship has sailed far the UK :grin:

So although adopting the euro is a requirement for joining the EU, you can see that there is no timetable for when that has to happen. A British PM just needs to kick the can down the road… Politicians on all sides in the UK are already very good at doing that when it suits them!

Yes this is absolutely right - the EU is unlikely to make a fuss about joining the Euro immediately being a precondition - though I think it would be beneficial in lots of ways.

Despite the doom and gloom expressed above in previous posts, I think it could happen sooner than we think, if the political will is there.

Anyway it’s impossible to predict for sure, so on we go managing with the status quo for a bit!!

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Which is contingent on a public demand to have another referendum and this is way down the list of issues that UK voters currently care about.

Or, alternatively, if it’s in a party’s manifesto ahead of a General Election and that party then wins a majority then it could be argued a referendum is unnecessary.

So why are none of the main parties likely to include re-joining the EU in their manifesto for the imminent election?

It would take way too much bandwidth. On the uk side, organising another referendum. Long negotiations with the eu and almost certainly having various conditions to meet. Passing rafts of legislation to bring the uk back into line. Potentially unpicking the few trade details the uk has signed since brexit. And unless the Tories are completely wiped out they will try their best to be disruptive and create division at every turn. It’s not what the country needs right now, the immediate focus has to be on trying to bring the nation back together and addressing domestic problems like the nhs,
And on the eu side, there are other priorities. Other countries have applications pending and I don’t think there would be much appetite for letting the uk jump the queue ahead of eg Ukraine. And I think the eu will want a lot of reassurances that this time the politicians are being honest with the people, and the people understand what being an eu member state actually involves.
It’s just too soon.