Trump promised pain whilst his tariff policy brought results and more jobs for the USA but I have just been listening to the head of an American clothing company that has sought crowdfunding to help them keep afloat because of tariffs.
China has banned American soya beans and farmers are going bankrupt.
Just a little pain, a terminal disease whilst he gloats and gets financially fatter.
From what I see personally of American businesses, there is going to be a lot of struggling in the next few years. Not just because of tariffs, but people in many nations will intentionally choose not to buy American goods.
Met a Canadian guy yesterday in Versailles and he says a lot of Canadians including him are boycotting American goods whenever there are alternatives.
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Trump will slowly cripple America, just as Brexit slowly cripples the UK.
I wonder if there is a common <cough>Putin<cough> connection.
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The UK Electoral Commission found that there was in the case of Brexit (via Cambridge Analytica, the dodgy funding for “Vote Leave” and misinformation on social media), but of course with a Tory Government at the time no action was taken.
The referendum result ought to have been declared null and void.
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The Guardian, ever a pessimist’s friend, is rather alarming
Who is there now, given that the US is being controlled by a maniac, that will pull us back from the brink?
I’m not sure we at at Cuba Missile Crisis levels of Doomsday yet. Russia is not comparable to the Soviet Union in its military power, having weakened itself in Ukraine and lost a lot of its capability due to corruption and obsolescence. If they tried to grab the Baltic States I think they would get their bottoms kicked, unless it went nuclear. But again I have read reports that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is in a pretty ropey state nowadays.
China is more worrying, but I can’t see them wanting to piss off their Western customers that support their economy, unless grabbing Taiwan becomes too tempting due to signals of indifference from the rest of us.
All that said I am not a geopolitics expert of course!
It’s not looking good between India and Pakistan, it’s been dodgy since partition but it’s awful now,
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I agree that Russia is now a much diminished force, albeit still belligerent and with a large nuclear arsenal.
China will be taking Taiwan, probably swiftly and relatively quietly, of that there is no doubt.
However, there is still all the sabre rattling in Iran; animus created by what Israel is doing in Gaza; rampant hostilities and disease in Africa; plus the recent escalation of agression between two nuclear powers in India and Pakistan.
As much as we may like to decry creeping US global power, it remains to say they used their wealth and powers of persuasion to maintain democracy and a moderately fair peace in the world. Not all their choices were, with the benefit of hindsight ideal, the Iraq debacle still smarts, but they did manage to keep a lid on simmering human conflicts and prevent them spreading. Now, there is no one doing this.
As the world fractures and countries veer right into nationalistic isolation, where can we look to find a strong leader or coalition who will uphold and protect values that so many died during two world wars to defend? China, with its egocentric global ambition, does not aspire to the same western pattern. Unchecked, squabbles and territorial differences risk escalating into many wars. How long before someone decides to launch a nuclear missile in a mistaken do or die last ditch effort?
I really don’t know any answers but I do greatly regret that as imperfect as was dominance of American world leadership, it is now perhaps a fatal tragedy to have a gilded ‘emperor’ Nero sailing us all into darkness.
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What is the problem between India ad Pakistan Vero? I have no education in that history, but I know you do.
Long story cut short:
Britain acquired Kashmir after the First Anglo-Sikh War in the 1850s and then “gave” most of it to India during Partition despite it being a majority Muslim region.
Trouble kicked off immediately with China sticking their oar in every once in a while,
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The root cause is Partition which could have been avoided.
What’s now Pakistan India and Bangladesh was a bunch of independent states until British India absorbed them into one entity run by the UK. There has always been a big Muslim minority but India’s predominantly Hindu.
When Indian nationalism started (Gandhi, the Congress) it was closely linked to Hinduism so the Muslim league was founded as a counterweight and you had on one side Nehru and Gandhi and the other Jinnah - that led to partition, so from 1947 there was India in the middle with Pakistan and East Bengal later East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) on either side. Partition was a cause for horrendous massacres and still festers.
India has been becoming more and more Hindu nationalist but it’s still a huge albeit imperfect democracy, still with a big Muslim minority.
Pakistan has been lurching from military regime to military regime with a lot of internal terrorism corruption and tribalism not helped by having to deal with the biggest population of displaced people (Afghans) which is politically and economically a strain.
Both Pakistan and India are nuclear powers and India has history with China (over eg Arunachal Pradesh and other border areas), China is backing Pakistan.
Thus latest hooha is over Kashmir which was divided when the British left and has been a bone of contention ever since. It might just be more grumbling but it could escalate since the checks and balances in place up to now have gone. They were last at war in 1971 but it seems many think another is overdue.
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Further to my current concerns, I had a little chat with GPT and it answered my question regarding parallels between 1930s Germany and today’s America, thus
Drawing parallels between 1930s Germany and contemporary America is a sensitive but important exercise. While the contexts are significantly different, historians and political analysts often point out certain structural and cultural similarities that can serve as cautionary markers. Here are some commonly noted parallels:
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Economic Anxiety and Inequality
• 1930s Germany: The Great Depression devastated the economy, with hyperinflation and mass unemployment fueling public anger and despair.
• Today’s America: Although not as extreme, many Americans experience stagnant wages, rising costs, and fear of job displacement, leading to populist sentiment. -
Political Polarization and Institutional Distrust
• Germany: Deep divides between communists, centrists, and nationalists eroded democratic norms. The Weimar Republic was perceived as weak and ineffectual.
• America: Political polarization has intensified, and trust in democratic institutions, elections, and the media is at historic lows for many groups. -
Rise of Populism and Authoritarian Rhetoric
• Germany: Hitler and the Nazis gained support through nationalist, populist messages promising to restore greatness and punish “enemies within.”
• America: Some political leaders use similar rhetoric—emphasizing nationalism, demonizing immigrants or political opponents, and challenging election legitimacy. -
Scapegoating and Culture Wars
• Germany: Jews, communists, and others were scapegoated for Germany’s decline, fostering a culture of exclusion and hatred.
• America: While not state-sponsored, there has been increased political and social scapegoating of immigrants, minorities, LGBTQ+ people, and others. -
Militarization and Paramilitary Presence
• Germany: Paramilitary groups like the SA helped the Nazis enforce ideology and intimidate opponents.
• America: While not directly comparable, increased presence of armed militias, extremist groups, and threats of political violence are concerning echoes. -
Media Manipulation and Propaganda
• Germany: The Nazis masterfully used propaganda to control public perception and silence dissent.
• America: Misinformation and partisan media ecosystems create alternate realities, eroding shared truth.
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Key Differences (Important Context)
• America today is wealthier, more stable, and has stronger institutions than Weimar Germany.
• The U.S. has a longer democratic tradition, with more robust civil society, judiciary, and checks on power.
• There is no equivalent to the Treaty of Versailles or the total collapse of government authority seen in Germany post-WWI.
Here’s a comparison chart highlighting key parallels between 1930s Germany and present-day America across several dimensions. Let me know if you’d like a downloadable version or additions to the chart.
I then wrote back:
Thank you! This is very succinct, though harrowing.
ChatGPT replied:
You’re very welcome—and yes, it is indeed sobering. These kinds of historical comparisons aren’t meant to suggest inevitability, but to help spot warning signs and reinforce the importance of civic engagement, media literacy, and institutional integrity.
Would you like recommendations on books, articles, or documentaries that explore these parallels further?
I thought I had better not 
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Here is the rest of my chat, just in case anyone may be interested:
Chat GPT:
Here are some well-regarded books, articles, and documentaries that explore the historical parallels and warning signs between 1930s Germany and contemporary democracies, including America:
⸻
Books
1. On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the Twentieth Century – Timothy Snyder
A brief but powerful guide that draws from the fall of democracies in the 20th century to offer practical advice for resisting authoritarianism today.
2. How Democracies Die – Steven Levitsky & Daniel Ziblatt
Political scientists analyze how democratic norms break down, using historical and contemporary examples including Weimar Germany and modern America.
3. The Anatomy of Fascism – Robert O. Paxton
A foundational text explaining how fascism rises, with detailed case studies including Nazi Germany.
4. The Origins of Totalitarianism – Hannah Arendt
A philosophical and historical exploration of how authoritarian systems emerge, focusing on Nazi Germany and Stalinist Russia.
5. It Can’t Happen Here – Sinclair Lewis
A 1935 novel imagining the rise of fascism in the United States—eerily prescient and widely cited in recent years.
⸻
Articles & Essays
1. “The Road to Autocracy Is Paved with Normalization” – Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic
A look at how democratic backsliding often happens slowly and through legal means.
2. “What 1930s Germany Can Teach Us About Today” – Richard J. Evans, The Guardian
A historian of Nazi Germany reflects on what lessons still resonate.
3. “Fascism, Authoritarianism and Trump – What Can We Learn from History?” – Jason Stanley, The New York Times
Stanley, author of How Fascism Works, connects academic theory to current American trends.
⸻
Documentaries & Series
1. The Rise of the Nazis (BBC)
A gripping documentary series that traces Hitler’s path to power—and the missed opportunities to stop him.
2. The U.S. and the Holocaust – Ken Burns, PBS
A recent and critically acclaimed series exploring how America responded to Nazism, with reflections on the fragility of democracy.
3. Fascism in Colour (Channel 5)
A visual documentary using colorized archival footage to show how fascist regimes rose and governed.
⸻
Would you prefer recommendations that are more focused on American history and democracy in crisis, rather than the Germany comparison?
Me:
Thank you. I now have much to read and watch.
Chat GPT:
You’re very welcome—I’m glad the list is helpful. It’s a heavy topic, but understanding history is one of the best ways to safeguard the future.
Feel free to reach out if you want summaries, discussion questions, or a reading plan as you go through any of it. Happy reading and watching.
I crossed that border in, I think, 1966 ish and they were shaping up for a war then. I tried to get a train from Lahore to Delhi but it was not possible, I couldn’t even get help with the enormous suitcase I was dragging (all my worldy goods as I was emigrating) and had to walk alone across 100 metres to the other side.
The Pakistan train was full of soldiers all pumping themselves up with what they were going to do to the Indians, and once in the Indian train, a similar experience about the other opposition.
Fortunately, everybody thought I was their friend. 
With regard to the Russians and their military might, I watched the Red Square do the other day and the huge missiles trumbling by seemed to be the exact same ones in the ‘60s’ and '70s. Unless it is a giant con, they do not seemed to have moved on much.
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I’m relieved to read there is a ceasefire in the India Pakistan conflict. Looks like the yanks helped to secure this as they did with Clinton last time sabres were rattled.
Thanks Vero.
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If you’ve ever visited Red Square, you could see how 30 of any large vehicle and a skip full of magnetic number plates/hull numbers/unit insignia driving past the podium and nipping around back for an ID change could convince folks you had an entire division of X with some tight framing.
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