Sterling v Euro

Banking & Financial
61

I’m afraid I have tried to be nice to people who come up with statements like “UK starts to emerge […] without the stranglehold of the EU” and it generally hasn’t worked. Geof was spot on that this was the key phrase.

I will admit that I was in a spectacularly grumpy mood this morning and consequently you got both barrels but unless you can start to form some coherent arguments as to how we will rise phoenix-like from the ashes and become an economic powerhouse I am going to assume that you don’t have any and uncritically believed and believe the Brexiteer claims that the EU was evil and somehow holding us back.

That’s as much as an apology as you are going to get BTW.

It’s not my first rodeo, though I do think the quality of his insults was mediocre.

So, go on, I’m all ears - these opportunities would be?

The problem with increasing RoW trad is that everywhere except the EU is a lot further away from the EU so it is harder to do trade and the cost of doing so increases - if only in transporting goods.

The value of e.g. the Australian trade deal is what? - 2.5% boost to trade with Australia itself and about 0.02% of total UK GDP - how does that start to offset a roughly 30% drop in trade with the EU (which we have experienced - hopefully it will pick up a bit but Frost seems intent on worsening relationships not improving them).

Even a US trade deal or joining CPTPP is only forecast to up GDP by single digit percentages if that.

In the meantime the cost of the Aus deal is tariff free access to the UK market for Australian meat producers - if it were not for the distances involved this would likely decimate home grown producers as Australian husbandry standards are excruciatingly low which gives them a significant cost advantage in production.

Brexit has already caused the fishing industry to collapse, our musicians can’t work in the EU because of the complexity of obtaining visas, our students no longer have access to Erasums, our SMEs (56% of them) are struggling to export to the EU (and cannot easily replace that business elsewhere), the square mile has seen massive losses of trading, jobs and assets to Paris, Frankfurt and New York - what is coming along to offset these (and other) losses? Please tell me.

And I have given you feedback on it.

Now are you going to defend it or not?

4 Likes
62

Your move Daddo…

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63

I don’t need to

64

No, in an absolute sense you do not - but it seems I was right, you have nothing to back up your opinion; it is just the faith of the zealot.

65

you didn’t read it correctly

66

an old work colleague of mine from nearly 40 years ago took me to one side and mentioned that the only problem with so and so (a mutual colleague) is that he’s full of wind and piss.
Wonderful reminder of a time past, thanks :slightly_smiling_face:

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67

I hope you didn’t have to share a small office with him, being in close confinement with someone full of wind and piss does not make for an enjoyable harmonious workplace.

68

nooo Kirstea our offices were several miles apart… never worked with him directly.

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69

I do have thick skin although it was punctured today.
As it was done by my 2nd Covid vaccination all is well.

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72

Yes and no.

Although they are separate problems - one natural (let’s leave aside the lab leak theory) and one self-inflicted their effects are intertwined and to an extent inseparable.

Both are producing an economic hit, Covid’s should be relatively short term, that of Brexit much longer and also structural.

The fact that Covid has hit many industries to an extent masks the effect of Brexit - as do Covid relief schemes - which is handy for the government. But as we emerge from Covid and economic activity picks up it is possible, even likely, that this will just uncover the deeper more structural damage we have done to ourselves. This is already visible in eg the UK hospitality industry which is finding that a lot of the staff have returned to the EU and don’t especially wish to come back to the UK (and would not get visas anyway).

There is also trouble brewing in the haulage industry which faces a shortage of drivers as EU drivers are reluctant to come to the UK, again this is not so noticeable at present because trade volumes are down but it is likely to hamper post Covid recover.

It’s all a complex situation, I don’t think it would be impossible for our economy to recover from the twin blows of Covid and Brexit but it will be hard and take a long time, and will require a competent government - not one who thinks an economic stimulus package is awarding large public purse projects based on who they went to school with.

1 Like