It probably won’t but I truly hope this steady drift of Ex Tories to Reform destroys both parties.
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I’d be interested to see what the win scenario is in the current climate, all I can see is the potential for loss the whole way down the line. I’d go so far as to say that this is the best decision for everyone.
Starmer: neuters a potential leadership challenge, cleverly using the NEC and party rules as the vehicle. Some see it as cowardice but who puts themselves in danger unnecessarily? He also neuters the threat of losing the Manchester mayoralty.
Burnham: gets to flag that he’s in the hunt but doesn’t actually put anything at risk by possibly losing the by-election. It helps to position him as the leader in waiting.
Given the current state of polling, allowing him to run carries significant risk with it being quite possible to lose both by-elections.
My personal view is that Burnham had a great pandemic but his track record in government and in his previous leadership bid is really quite poor. I also prefer politicians to see out their mandate unless there are exceptional circumstances and I don’t see ego massage as fitting the bill.
Even if you were going to vote Reform : after seeing Bravermann’s gone there, well you wouldn’t, would you 
That works on so many levels
I’m pleased to announce that I’ve just paid £25 to join a new grassroots, member led, people’s movement which has been set up as an alternative to the establishment parties of Labour and Conservative. It has come at a perfect time for me as I’ll never vote Labour again and I couldn’t vote Conservative even with a gun pointed at my head.
This new movement is called ReformUK and if anyone is interested, I can send you a link to a mental health forum.
The last vote in living memory which changed anything was in 2016 and our masters won’t make that mistake again.
Dunno - if I were stupid enough to be planning on voting reform before the move …
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That’s an unnecessarily jaundiced view of politics.
The job of politicians is stability first and foremost so that the rest of us can get on with our lives. As you say the 2016 referendum did change something - and we are poorer for it.
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There are now 3 big egos in Reform, each with naked ambition to be PM, and we know there’s only room for one big ego when Farage is in the room so it has potential for fireworks.
I’m also curious as to when Reform voters step back and realise that they’ve basically just got the Tories that we’ve had for the last 10 years or so.
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Remind me when that last happened as I think I must have missed it.
The last 18 months seem to have been quite an improvement, on the domestic stage anyway.
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Not just that, Farage’s ‘I ‘m just one of the lads down the pub’ falls into a heap when you realise that he is the only ‘lad’ earning £1, 00,00 a year.
I really think that his earning should be shouted loud from the rooftop so that all those thinking of voting Reform can realise just what a fraud he is.
I suspect it’s one of those verb conjugations:
I’m a shrewd businessman
You’re a sharp operator
He’s utterly corrupt
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He isn’t very good at declaring his sources of income, the parties or indeed his property(s) the amphibian.
Now that would be funny, wouldn’t it? If the whole of the Tory party defected to Reform. Surely a good thing if it meant they never got elected again. 
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It will just be the nasty right wing ones. I wonder if it will accelerate though.
What would be hilarious is if Badenoch went while leader of the Tories.
What’s left of the Tories after evisceration by Reform might even be a half decent set of people but I doubt they will see power again in a while.
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This would be my preference, where they might be replaced by decent people, in politics out of conviction and vocation, rather than on the make or gobby but dumb and over-confident.
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