The Ukraine situation, where will it end?

Agree, especially in the case of the war in Ukraine and the first casualty of war, as they say, is the truth.

One should watch *any* video with the questions “who is the author/producer, what is their motivation and what is their agenda” which is why I did not suggest that Fleur take down the video, but acknowledge that it might be at odds with the majority of reports coming from Russian occupied areas in Ukraine regarding the behaviour of Russian “soldiers”.

Absolutely not - I have absolutely no doubt there are decent Russians, possibly even decent Russian soldiers.

But to call the men being sent into Ukraine as soldiers is a stretch. The regular army turned out not to be that well trained or equipped and the conscripted men have token training, no weapons, food, or sometimes identifiable chain of command and some of them are convicted criminals FFS.

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I’m sure you’re right Susannah, but…. how can we judge the amount of propaganda we are being fed too? All this right and wrong, black and white stuff unsettles me. As always things are actually grey and the truth (an interesting concept) is somewhere in between, and I have no way of judging where to draw the line. I’m sure there have been atrocities committed by both armies, is it just a matter of scale? What level of atrocity is acceptable one wonders?

I mentioned General Sir Richard Barrons earlier in this thread too, and I agree with you, he seems to have very good grasp of what’s going on. He stated on the W@1 that the withdrawal from Kherson may well be a smart tactical move. Which, for different political reasons, was inconvenient for both sides to admit. In the medium to longer termI think the war is going badly for Ukraine, however I haven’t read that anywhere, maybe I’m just too lazy to do enough research. Russia has retreated to well defended positions, retains the lions share of their original objective (discounting they thought they could do a blitzkrieg on Kiev) and they can now make Ukraine uninhabitable this winter, from a distance.

Obviously if I’m right it’s bad news not only for the poor Ukrainians but for all of us, so I hope I’m not. However, I’d like to able to read a balanced, bias free assessment of the situation. Anybody know of one?

Sadly I suspect your assessment is correct.

Perhaps, but in this situation where Ukraine is not attacking Russian territory overtly, it’s much less easy for a defending army to commit atrocities against civilians. There may have been some captured soldiers shot instead of being taken prisoner, but that is substantially different to what Russia has done. It’s simply untenable to suggests like-for-like behaviour.

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We’re straying from the point and being invited to deal with another straw man.

No-one is suggesting that one side has behaved irreproachably and the other despicably. We are all capable of seeing nuances in behaviour, and of analysing news sources.

The point about the video is that it bears all the hallmarks of being pure propaganda and of being unreliable.

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Unfortunately that is also my take of the situation.

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Oh, Fleur. I do not want you to feel there is any personal criticism of you from me. This war is an absolute tragedy, that much is an absolute certainty and in which we are in total agreement.

My only wish is to halt SF being a vehicle of Russian propaganda specifically designed to sway opinions of people in the west. The Donbass video is not a factual piece of reporting, it is a work of fiction created to sow dissent amongst us. Russian officials are remarkably open about the aims of RT: to “break the monopoly of the Anglo-Saxon global information streams,” as Putin himself put it during a visit to RT’s Moscow headquarters in 2013. (Putin talks NSA, Syria, Iran, drones in RT interview — RT World News).

Sharing RT’s Donbass video with SF members, posting it in this thread, not only furthers the Russian propoganda agenda to publicise but it also registers our reader’s statements of support. Forever.

As @Geof_Cox pointed out, free speech allows all of us to say whatever we think, within certain limits. My point is that unquestionably this propaganda video is in fact propaganda masquerading as fact. Should SF be posting it?

Here is an article that explains the social psychology involved with more articulacy than I have been able:

How can we avoid falling for or spreading misinformation?

“remember that the most successful misinformation succeeds by appealing to emotions rather than reason. If misinformation can tap into that emotive pathway, you’re never going to question it because it feels good, and if it feels good, it’s adjacent to being true. So the first thing that I recommend is: if something makes you feel emotional—particularly if something makes you feel angry—before you share it or interact with it, really ask yourself the question “Who is promoting this, and do I trust them?”

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IF the only Russian objective was annexation of the Donbas region they presumably would have been much better served by limiting their “special military operation” to that territory. It might even have worked if pro-Russian sympathies were as solid as Putin thought.

It is clear that Putin wanted regimen change in Ukraine - with the installation of a Moscow friendly, Putin controlled puppet government in much the same way that he has in Belarus - that aim has completely failed.

Yes, Russia can take advantage of the winter to magnify its attacks on Ukranian infrastructure, but equally Ukraine can use winter to magnify the fact that Russian conscripts are poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly fed, poorly led, a long way home and very, very cold.

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-journalism-bellingcat-breaking-idUSKBN2AC1FC

Bellingcat.com associated journalists are as good as it gets.

https://www.bellingcat.com/tag/ukraine/

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I wouldn’t argue with that, but a short sharp blitzkrieg on Kyiv would have achieved that and his Donbas objective, now I suspect the latter (and saving face) is his only objective.

As for “poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly fed, poorly led, a long way home and very, very cold”. Certainly some of that is true, the more the better, but I don’t believe as much as our own propaganda is telling us. Nor have I seen any assessment of just what it would take to make an assault on the Russian positions but I suspect it’s significant. Maybe they can be softened up through bombardment of one kind or another, who knows?

To my untutored eye stalemate looks like the most likely outcome, with the Russians able to hammer civilian infrastructure and the Ukrainians unable to return the compliment. Which is why I think a quick peace negotiation is the best thing all round before things get even worse.

Well, hope springs eternal. It’d be nice to have sources one could actually trust.

Apart from the odd post here, and I don’t really regard SF as “Social Media”, I don’t do Social Media (Geof knows my views :face_with_hand_over_mouth:) so I can’t really comment, apart from saying that disinformation and lies should obviously be discouraged everywhere, whenever possible.

So that’s the Mail, Express and a good chunk of the Telegraph gone then :joy:

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And all the Murdoch media.
You should really get into Mastadon though John - it’s great.

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:rofl: Don’t forget The Sun!

Anything Murdoch owned is compromised, although my husband does enjoy a salacious laugh through The Sun when a free one passes by.

And in US, Murdoch has Fox News, whose slogan is ‘Fair and Balanced’:joy::rofl::smiling_face_with_tear:

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Yes, it’s unpleasant. I feel that an overly optimistic tone is being taken on “our” side to avoid Ukraine fatigue setting in. We obviously don’t want to give any encouragement, solace or respite to the Russian aggressors, but are we counselling Zelensky appropriately? Or is America, once again in its post 1950s way, pushing its agenda on foreign soil with the locals picking up the pieces afterwards?

I don’t know, but I’d prefer peace talks to escalation.

Edit: I think I’ll pop off to bed now and pull the covers over my head :slightly_smiling_face:

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I agree and it wasn’t my intention to do so. However I do believe all armies are probably capable of doing bad stuff.

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That is one thing that worries me, as a Ukraine sympathiser, as I have just finished reading Max Hasting’s massive book about the Vietnam war. Not a good read for those who put their trust in the USA.

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Indeed, even the Allies contravened the Geneva Convention and the traditional rules of war when it came to dealing with the likes of the Waffen SS.

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Indeed, and after Oradour-sur-Glane who could blame them.

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I understand there has been a large explosion in a gas pipeline near St. Petersberg. An accidental explosion has been described as ‘impossible’. It may be that this is self-inflicted for propaganda reasons, but if not then it might be a warning that it may not just be Ukrainians who struggle through the winter.

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Well, not withstanding the terrible risk of escalation, the impact of the conflict does need to be brought home to all Russian citizens, beyond the many Russian families grieving due to Putin’s hubris and Russian military incompetence.

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Hmmm…
Interesting how others see it. The right-wing US Republican grandee Newt Gingrich has just written a back-handed tribute to Biden, including this sentence:

Biden has carefully and cautiously waged war in Ukraine with no American troops.