UK Covid analysis

It was a tongue-in-cheek/ joke/ lighthearted comment!

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I really can’t feel light-hearted about the state of things in UK. all these laboratories which have been prevented from testing by ultra restrictive standards being applied. It makes one want to weep.

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Jane it is not the “restrictive Standards” but the incompetence of those shirkers in Westminster. The laboratories operate to more or less the same restrictive standards for normal business. It all comes down to the incompetent shit weasels in Westminster.

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Test, test, test?

It is exactly that, the incompetence of those in Westminster who have failed to face reality.

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Westminster decided to believe in , and back their “experts” from the start. They ( the experts) were wrong. For one, the worldometer graphs showed this. The “experts” kept saying we were 4 weeks or more behind Italy…no we ( the uk) were not, we were 2 weeks behind them all along. And whats more 5 days behind Spain at that point.
Yet they remained staunch, that we could ride the problem by letting all get infected. Utterly incompetent to risk people in that way.
I’m wondering what really actually prompted the about turn in strategy.

Maybe they have managed to get enough resource gathered so that the NHS and private health care to be able to cope. But very angered by their incompetence, and wondered why their “experts” could not see and read into the data ( such as worldometer) that was available. A mere mortal like me could see it in the 2nd week of March.

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and even more damning…

UK figures today 4244 new cases (80 down on yesterday), 569 deaths (6 up from yesterday).

Deaths still tracking new cases from 14 days ago very well.

Expect deaths to ramp up to 2-3k per day over the next week and stay there for at least another week.

“not as bad as 'flu” eh?

Not convinced the French figures stack up all that well to the same analysis.

What I don’t understand is why next to nobody in the UK ever gets better, or do they just not bother to record recoveries?

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I’m assuming that the figures are not getting through - there must be some recoveries, even on this dire data it should be ~ 1500 by now.

Those that did recover stayed in hospital longer in the Chinese data.

John Hopkins is recording 179 recoveries in Uk to date, worldometer 135 (but that might still be yesterday’s figure)

But surey there should be thousands of recoveries since this began?

Anna, I don’t believe several parameters are either being released / " getting through" or even bothered to be taken due to admin overhead.
There are some basic maths between certain sets of figures, but the numbers of recoveries, serious critical are total rubbish. I watched the serious critical for UK, and it remained on 120 for over a week.
The total recovered is bull, as they can only go on the ones that were tested in hospital in the first place. Those still in circulation and have had it and returned to work are not being recorded. Even those who have been in hospital, the number hasn’t really changed in 2 weeks.
There is unfortunately only one figure they can’t really fudge ( = not tell us about)

Depends what recoveries you are talking about.

Recoveries for patients who have tested positive - well, the bulk of those tested positive have done so in the past 2 weeks, they have not had time to recover (or not) yet so will not be part of any statistics, that leaves a relatively small number - about 4,000-4,500 who tested positive more than 14 days ago - out of that group 2921 have died leaving, at best, 1500 to have recovered or who are recovering.

More than 135 certainly but not “thousands”

Keep sight of the fact that outwith the small number paying for private testing you’re only getting a positive diagnosis in the UK if you are ill enough to need hospital - i.e. at death’s door.

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It wouldn’t suprise me if most are still working on Brexit.

But this is the thing I don’t understand. “As of 9am on Thursday, a total of 163,194 people have been tested of which 33,718 tested positive”.

If you have to be seriously ill to be tested then 130 000 roughly have tested negative. Did these people have flu but not Corona virus? Of those 163 000 people tested they have only managed to test 2000 people working for the NHS. It just doesn’t add up.

Maybe I am missing something? Or maybe there are false negatives in the UK as well?

The negatives are people presenting with symptoms that might be Covid (sore throat, cough, fever) but are some other respiratory infection, there are lots to choose from (other coronavirus strains, 'flu, rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, RSV, adenovirus species, the list goes on). Plus probably some bacterial pneumonias, plus maybe some unrelated presentations who are being tested to make sure that their Coronavirus status is known as the last thing you want is a positive patient on a “clean” ward.

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Plus far too many false negatives, if the UK is using the same tests as France.

Indeed, don’t know if that is the case though.

I was happily reading that article Chris until I came to “that is why the UK is prioritising testing healthcare workers”… the UK has not been prioritising healthcare workers, that’s why Hancock is up to his neck in poo. Plus, the article witters on about testing ALL healthcare workers… that’s not the current problem. The problem is that there are healthcare workers self isolating that do not have the virus and who could be back at work. I think the author of the piece is a bloody idiot.

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