UK Covid analysis

That is what BoJo said, but he is still self isolating and looks awful.

He looks and sounds dreadful

He did before too

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I am not quite sure if I fully subscribe to the “it’s a ploy” conspiracy theory, it would set a new level to which Johnson is prepared to stoop for one thing - but his carfully toussled hair is well known to be an affectation and “looking a bit ropey” is easy to do on a crappy video (in fact why is it crappy - most phones have excellent video cameras in them).

Frankly if he is unwell, he should not be trying to run the country - he makes poor decisions at the best of times and none of us make better than usual decisions when we are ill.

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and consider the alternative… Raab (pass me the sick bucket) :nauseated_face:

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UK - 4450 today (3.4.2020), up on yesterday but only by 4% and only slightly up on April 1st so I’m going to be optimistic and hope that we are finally levelling off.

Deaths 684 - still grimly tracking the new case numbers from 14 days ago with grinding perfection.

I don’t know if anyone else has, but i let my mind wander a couple of days ago. Heard of some far fetched conspiracy theories, that was when my mind wandered.
Some may have heard about Porton Down ? most maybe not. Well apparently they are involved with Public Health England as part of GovUK. I only heard yesterday that they are involved now with testing , and funded to try and create a vaccine.
Well the reason I thought of them, before I knew of their involvement was : Back in the day, Porton Down was a hush hush defence establishment; who were THE research establishment into Biological & Chemical Warfare. And i thought WHY did the government not ask these people ( scientists), to provide the expert advice instead of the originals who were going to make a massive mistake.
Thinking further, i was interested in the pollution levels around the globe without all the trains planes and automobiles. Massive reductions.
Within pollution and it’s effects, i looked up Nitrogen Oxide. Well guess what, look at the effects of Nitrogen Oxide NOx and poisoning by it.
Exposure to high level of nitrogen dioxide may lead to inflammation of the mucous membrane and the lower and upper respiratory tracts.
Breathing low levels of nitrogen oxides may cause brief, nonspecific symptoms such as cough, shortness of breath, tiredness, and nausea. However, even if removed from exposure, a person who has breathed nitrogen oxides can develop more serious lung injury over the next 1 to 2 days.
Maybe i should stop reading things :smiley:

I think you have to look at new daily cases, then imagine that in 6-10 days later 5% or more of these will be dying.

Perhaps rural France is dead year round but it’s a safer place to be right now.

But thank god corbin didn’t get elected, he does well to get dressed in a morning.

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Not quite - on the UK figures you look at today’s numbers and imagine 50-80% will be dying in about 14 days.

We’e only picking up the most serious cases, see my explanation at the start of the thread & elsewhere.

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You could have had George Washington, but you voted for Pinocchio!

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What is the point of this type of infantile, playground humour? Do you think that it makes you seem funny, clever or manly?

The time frame of 14 days does seem correct from interpreting the graphs Paul. I did read a quote of about 6% hospitalized, and from there, 1 in 5 or 1 in 6 mortality rate.

Whichever way, it will be a month of purgatory.

That’s an uncalled for comment Dan. It think it reflects rather badly on you.

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Well you are entitled to your opinion but I disagree with it. Do you really this is the time for that sort of political point scoring through unnecessary insults? I actually believe your comment reflects badly on you too.

Havent you read @cat comments about toning down the aggression?

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Just thinking that didn’t last long

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That was data from China which gives a bit more complete picture.

It is obvious that as we are testing patients on their way into hospital that we are only identifying the sickest - actual mortality rates amongst the patients identified as positive in the UK is more like 60-70%

We’re not far off admitting just the cohort that went to ITU in China.

I don’t think it was political point scoring. I think Johnson and Hancock are doing a dreadful job but I also think Corbyn would be even worse. He hasn’t any leadership skills either.

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If you want to tinker then the daily data is available here Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Our World in Data in excel/csv format.

Note that there are some discrepancies between this and other sources - eg the figures for the UK have the right total (1132) for 1 & 2 days ago (if you add them together) but the figures for each day differ from the official reports.

One thing that I am not too keen on in the FT plots is the use of 7-day moving averages - 7 days feels too long given the fast moving nature of the data but it is obvious from a cursory attempt at plotting the data that some average is needed.

Enjoy