UK Covid analysis

Some would see him as our saviour :blush:

There is certainly a hint of that if you look back to last week.

New cases is the more interesting figure anyway if you want to know how well lockdown is working

I’m sure he’s a very nice and empathic man but he’s not a leader IMO, certainly in times of turmoil. Johnson is a (bumbling) leader, just not in the right direction. I would have a lot more confidence in Starmer then either of them. Ironically, the person who seems to be talking most sense is the same person who been clobbering the NHS since 2012, Hunt.

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Absolutely, the lead indicator is new infections, but it’s dependent on mass testing.

So, the official tally for the UK is 3802 new cases and 439 new deaths as of 9am 6.4.2020 and 5pm 5.4.2020 respectively.

That new cases is down on yesterday is to be welcomed particularly as that represents a slight lightening of the load on the NHS and it suggests that lockdown is perhaps beginning to bite - but we have a little way to go in terms of a reduction in daily new case numbers.

The deaths figure is intriguing - possibly a “weekend effect” as Anna suggested - certainly I don’t think there is anything to indicate that the outlook for patients on their way into hospital has suddenly improved - and even if mortality stayed at this level compared with new cases 14 days ago we are still looking at 20k deaths in the next 2 weeks.

French new cases fell considerably yesterday - again very welcome but we need some more data to see which way things are going to go.

The overall weekly death rate from ALL causes has not changed at all - in fact since the beginning of this year it has declined slightly. (weekly data from the national office of statistics https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

There is no virus as such.
When stressed, exosomes in our body emulate Covid-19 when subjected to the testing being undertaken. More testing will result in more people seeming to ‘have Covid-19’.
People are dying WITH (what looks like) Covid-19 not FROM it only because any death now is being tested for it whereas it never was before.
I suggest that we are in no different a place than we were at this time last year - except for the hardships being imposed on people’s lifestyle through incarceration and the prospect of losing their jobs and homes.

ITUs are not overflowing with people in imaginary respiratory distress, nor are people dying of phantom ARDS.

Please Geoff, take your fantasies elsewhere.

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so are we in agreement then Paul?
And I thought this forum may be used by us all, not just those who like yourself follow the establishment line.

No, we are not in agreement Geoff

you may be interested to read these comments from health ministers around the world:

You may also wonder if the former Scottish health minister thought that she would be putting her children in danger or not by travelling to her holiday home on the coast. Or does she know something we are not being told?

I think Boris Johnson is. Pretty sure he wasn’t in ICU this time last year.

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I’m quite skeptical about some of the mainstream media coverage - but OffGuardian is definitely NOT a reliable source of information…

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While I’m waiting for today’s figures the old numbers have been revised up considerably as community figures are pulled in.

it is worth remembering here that the normal number of deaths in the UK is about 1700 a day so to get 1649 from a single cause - or even associated with a single cause is way off piste.

Finally two comments about the mortality data that Geoff posted (I won’t persuade him, I know that) - first just because a particular week was 11019 deaths compared with an average for the previous 5 years of 11205 (wk 11, 13 March) does not in any meaningful way tell you that the rate has declined, you need some idea of the stastical variance to even start to know that and secondly with so much Covid flying around registrations of and collection of statistics from non-Covid related deaths is likely to be held up - the whole point of the ONS data is to be timely which means that it is likely to be revised at a later data when the full picture emerges.

I heard Guto Harri, the journalist who worked with BoJo when he was Mayor of London, saying that he was full of optimism about everything.
That’s fine, as long as you think hard and;look into possible untended consequences as well, which he has never done.

IS he in ICU Anna ?
if so does he need to be?
Don’t trust anything you are told. And that of course includes anything I or others on this forum say.

Don’t worry Geoff, I don’t :wink:

Uk today - 3634 cases and 786 deaths. One could be optimistic that new cases have levelled off.

Media making much of the deaths going up but it was artificially low yesterday so some catching up in reporting going on. It seems there is little understanding of lag between new cases and deaths or the natural history of the disease in those ill enough to be admitted to hospital (Prime Ministers excepted).

Interesting hypotheses being banded about regarding SARS-Cov-2 and effect on red cells and haemoglobin, together with a possible mechanism for hydroxychloroquine.

Those looking at the statistics -and in particular how the media (mis)represent them - will be interested in this…

A third comment, arising from something I read this morning - self isolation, social distancing and regular handwashing will also have considerably reduced the transmission of other diseases and particularly flu. The population in general and especially the at risk age group hasn’t been as exposed as usual to the seasonal flu virus. So if you discount covid19 mortality, you would expect far fewer deaths.

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It’s also meant that routine surgery is cancelled and even planned procedures have a risk - which is not contributing to the figures at present.