We're Doomed

Rumours are they want to renegotiate the supply and confidence agreement - and want more than the original £1b bung to support the Tories into the new administration.

Might be academic - his majority is paper thin, even with DUP support.

That makes sense Paul, thanks for the HsU.
but where are they on ‘no deal’ brexshit?

I’m less concerned about Johnson as PM as I am about the direction that the whole political scene is taking both in the UK and the US - too many echoes of 1930’s Germany.

I don’t think Johnson will be a good PM - in order to secure the post he has had to make a set of undeliverable promises so he is going to have to shift somewhere - at which point the wheels come off. As Ian Dunt says at least TM took a couple of months to box herself in with a set of undeliverables - Johnson has done it before even taking up office.

For one thing the parliamentary arithmetic won’t change - in fact it is likely to get worse as his working majority could fall to just a single vote if the LibDems win Brecon.

What are his options?

Early GE to try to get a working majority - almost certainly won’t as it will be a 4-party race this time.
Edit: Also as Chris Grey points out it can’t be done by Oct 31st so would need an extension - hence breaking one of his campaign promises.

Further ref - He’ll lose the ERG and might split the Tories so unlikely - but this plan might have the best chance of getting through parliament now that Labour have warmed (slightly) to the prospect.
Edit: However we run into the time factor again so can’t be done without reneging on his “Out by the 31st” promise.

Porogue parliament. You can argue about whether Major called an early GE and porogued parliament in '97 to avoid publication of some embarrassing material but if Johnson tries to “get parliament out of the way” it is  lkely to be a big constitutional mess given how important Brexit is. I think that the government would collapse (then see point 1 - GE).

Re-negotiate the WA - no way; the extension agreement precludes this and I doubt the EU will be in a mood to bend the rules.

Re-negotiate the PD - maybe this can be sugar coated enough to get the whole thing through - not sure.

Somehow do a unilateral deal with Dublin then present this as a fait accompli to the EU - maybe but if he comes up with a NI only solution the DUP won’t be on board.

Revoke A50 - doubt he has the balls, would split the Tories - but just, just  if Johnson thinks this would be the best way to cling on until a 2022 GE it could happen. Slim chance but not, I think, zero; but maybe not usefully greater than zero either.

No-deal - parliament are egtting more robust in their rejection of no-deal so I doubt he could actually get it through; of course the problem remains if not “no deal” then what, exactly?

All in all a bit of a mess and not getting less messy.


If the EU offered to make Johnson President he’d revoke article 50 tomorrow.
With a bung, obviously


The one constant with Johnson is that he is mainly concerned with his own career.


self importance more like…

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He’s narcissistic, not quite in the same overtly nasty way as Trump but definitely has a warped sense of self worth and it is very difficult to get to the man behind the curtain.

Interesting article about Johnson’s personality and how it changed after his mother’s illness.

Yep agree.

Don’t often agree with you Paul, but I think you are on the money today.

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French News Digest: France Reacts to Boris

By ElenaBarnard

| 23rd July 2019

With the UK’s newsfeeds choc-a-bloc with commentary on Boris Johnson’s election as Conservative party leader, we’re taking a look across the channel at the latest news in France.


We’d be remiss not to reflect on how Boris’s new appointment has been received by our friends in France. After all, who can forget his colourful choice of words when he commented on France’s Brexit stance? While President Macron has stated that he’ll work with the future PM once he is in office, French news outlets have taken less kindly to his appointment. LCI drew unfavourable comparisons to Donald Trump and Libération called him a “court jester […] unfit to be Prime Minister.”

Climate change campaigner, Greta Thunberg, has been in France this week. The young activist was awarded a €25,000 prize by World War II veterans in the north of the country. Right-wing deputies have been somewhat less welcoming, with MP Julien Aubert scathingly commenting: “Don’t count on me to applaud a prophetess in shorts, a Nobel Prize for Fear.”

As Yellow Vest action dials back a notch, President Macron’s popularity has climbed, particularly with centrists. This is despite a blow last week when his environment minister, François de Rugy, was forced to quit following an expenses scandal.

The US has just voted to offer to adopt Boris in exchange for a 70-year-old whining crybaby that needs a new home.

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Seen a new german nickname for Mr. Johnson — Der Trumpel

Trampel - uncouth, clumsy person.

Add a bit of Trump & you get Boris The Trumpel



Rather strange that the value of the Pound perked up this morning.

They reckoned that a Johnson premiership was “fully priced in” so presumably this is just in response to a few more trades going through as some will have been waiting to see if it was Hunt after all.

Though it might have risen more if Hunt had got in.

If there is one thing that will unite the opposition it is Boris.
Be careful what you wish for!

Larry, the Downing Street cat just heard that Boris is moving in…


I see Dominic Grieve has backtracked on his “I’ll resign the whip if Johnson is elected” promise.

I know that there are a lot of hard-working backbench MPs like Jess Phillips - but once you get to a certain position it’s all about posturing and one’s own career and maybe one’s party and basically f**k all to do with what is right morally or for the country.

Something happens to many MP’s after they’ve settled in at Westminster, principles go out of the window and they turn into creepy slime balls in the pursuit of power.


Source: Ireland against fascism

Once seen, it’s difficult to forget…