Sorry Paul but George Osborne and others stated that simply voting to Leave would result in a loss of 500k jobs and a big cut in GDP, the opposite has happened.
The claim was a 500k hit on Jobs and a fall in GDP if we left, not just for the act of voting to leave.
It is clear however that the act of voting to leave has done harm to our economy, even though unemployment does appear to be down overall some 250k jobs have been lost because of Brexit GDP growth has been stunted and we have gone from the high end of G7 performance to the low end, investment generally is flat and inward foreign investment has plummeted.
Some data for you.
GDP
And while unemployment is down we are not better off - far from it as inflation has been higher and wages hit in real terms
With the result that household borrowing has hit all time highs
Business investment is flat
And finally the FTSE 250 is performing poorly compared with world indices (the 250 is a better index for UK performance - the 100 is full of international giants).
Source ($$) https://www.ft.com/content/cf51e840-7147-11e7-93ff-99f383b09ff9
Itâs not looking so rosy is it?
Thatâs not what Project Fear said Paul during the campaign, the effects of voting Leave would be felt BEFORE the UK actually left, this is from the same source that you used on another thread -
So which bit of 2-3% GDP loss and 250k fewer jobs compared to where we would have been is not harm done to the economy even before we leave?
Come on Paul, you know that the useless Remain campaign forecast immediate âarmageddonâ rather than eschew the positive benefits of EU membership.
Ah, Tim, youâre changing the subject now
Actually Iâll run with it - pausing only to note that just about no-one, not even Brexiteers are claiming much in the way of economic benefit any more.
Yes, the Remain campaign was awful - Leave was able to focus on a fairly simple, upbeat message and the âProject Fearâ label was very effective against legitimate concerns as to how our economy would fare post Brexit.
Ultimately Leave vs Remain is heart vs head - Farage understands this with his donât worry about the details, just feel the emotion campaign.
What has started to worry me in the last few days is that it is not impossible you could see a GE with the Brexit Party on low 30% of the vote and Labour & Tory stuck in the mid 20âs - FPTP could then see him sweep to power which might well be an extremely unpleasant experience1.
Iâm not so worried about him storming home in the EU elections per-se, heâll just displace UKIP MEPs.
1] I hesitate to get close to Goodwin's law but, you know, Germany, Italy and Spain in the 1930's were all theatres where the far right parties swept to power and the outcome wasn't good.Not changing the subject at all, Remain whilst perhaps not telling porkies like Boris were guilty of using stats and forecasts to scare people into voting a certain way, some of these of so-called forecasts have now been shown to be way off. No more to be said.
We are discussing the claim of 500k jobs and 3.6% of GDP lost
The analysis is 250k jobs lost and 3% GDP shrinkage compared with where we would have been
That doesnât sound like âway offâ to me.
Anyway, as I said, not even the Brexiteers are still claiming we will be better off.
According to you.
A lot more to be said by the many people who want to remain and those who have changed their mind and those youn g people who were too young to vote and want the same educational chances as those that have gone before, with the right to study in European Universities.
Yes, Tim. Changing the subject when your argument is challenged is not a reputable tactic, but you deployed it and Paul properly called you out.
It has been used over and over for months and is always easily swatted away by disinterested interviewers. We shall only know the economic and social impact of Brexit over a sustained period after we leave the EU, and all objective and informed commentators acknowledge that to be the case. Nobody knows, of course, but the indications are ominous and concerning IMO.
Leave told lies, Remain issued dodgy forecasts, blah, blah, blah. Three years on the UK economy hasnât tanked and more people are in work than ever before, compare that to whatâs happening here where people are striking, rioting and the masses hate the Pres. As I said earlier jailing BJ changes nothing, it would be better if people put their time and money into promoting the benefits of EU membership rather than re-run the referendum over and over.
I fully appreciate that the Brexit result has had a negative on investment into the UK and this may well increase should the UK actually leave but itâs naive to believe that the fallback in the world economy has not affected the UK in the same way as it has in most countries in Europe including Germany.
Itâs not, or should not be âblah, blah, blahâ - Leave misrepresented much more stuff than remain and to just shrug and ignore it risks normalising it - if people wish to stand for office or influence our decision on the scale of Brexit it should be normal to challenge and scrutinise their claims, not just shrug and accept falsehoods.
Again, Farage is all about casting aside rationality and trying to sweep people along on a range of emotions.
The impression is that the French are âalways on strikeâ - but, actually, they loose relatively few days to industral action (they are, perhaps, good at making a small focussed action count).
Agree there.
Again agree, sadly the Remainers are not showing any signs of having learnt anything from the 2016 campaign so I suspect they might well fall into the trap of trying to re-run it or sanctimoniously telling everyone that they were right all along - either or both will be disastrous.
What fallback - the world economy is currently growing about 3.3% per annum, the UK economy has gained just over 3% since the beginning of 2016 compared to over 10% for the world average.
It is true that the IMF has cut its growth forecast successively since last summer but from 3.9 to 3.3% which is considerably ahead of the miserable 1% that the UK economy has managed.
But, as I said, not even the most ardent Brexiteer (apart from a few nut jobs) bothers to try to claim weâll be better off economically following Brexit.
At the end of the day, all politicians are just liars, cheats and fraudsters and most are plain stupid as well.
Actually, there were some good politicians⌠in the dim and distant⌠perhaps we could dig them up and try reanimation⌠(it works in Films⌠)
I thought that most of them were already zombies Stella !
It is such a shame⌠how difficult it is to find an honest person⌠not necessarily âperfectâ ⌠no-one is that⌠but you know what I mean⌠a basically decent personâŚ
Come out⌠come out⌠where ever you are⌠we need you !!!
Stella that would be a bigger task than delivering Brexit.
Ann, when you see them lounging around and snoring or looking at their phones and dont move for at least 10 mins in the Houses of Parliament, one would think the present lot are the zombies.
I agree, and also capable of saying straight yes or no, and not the intoxicated ramblings one hears from them.
If one of them does think about saying yes or no then they are branded âracist, phobic, radicalâ and all the other possible forms in general use today
Careful Stella, the retrospectoscope is a very distorting optical instrument