Brexit Vote, what next!

The question is now what.

If May does as she said last week she should now go to Brussels this week to ask for an extension.

Inaction at this point means we bomb out next Friday.

Might be an idea to see what the bookies are saying @mick

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So you don’t see it as an early opportunity to deal with the rest of the world in absolute freedom then?! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

Press saying she will have to go back to Brussels and say her deal can’t pass Parliament and we need a new one or more significant changes for a vote to happen. Like that is going to happen. Don’t be surprised to see Corbyn now submit a vote of no confidence in the Government.

But, this Bercow intervention is pretty significant as I think May was getting close to getting this over the line and mood music has definitely changed. This has derailed her plans considerably, although it may have strengthened her hand in Europe but at the same times weakened it at home.

Time to pull up a chair and watch another week of chaos unfold.

I am not convinced that Bercow is on TM’s Xmas Card list any more!

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Footnote to my last: it will be very interesting to see EU’s response to this! I’m beginning to wonder how close we are to the point where they are prepared to say enough, it’s a hard Brexit and begone with you! We can’t be far off now!

Or Dominic Grieve.

More likely on her hit list than her Christmas card list!

There were noises about pulling the vote if defeat likely - and with 20-odd Tory die-hards vowing never to support her deal it was looking dicey on numbers anyway.

I confess I’m having a hard time knowing which way this will go - it will either push us to no deal and out next week or push us into an extension.

Logic would dictate that we seek the latter route given the stated views of parliament last week but we also have to factor in the EU’s feelings - and it is by no means certain that a long extension would be granted given that there are exasperated noises coming out of the EU regarding the UK’s mishandling of the whole situation.

So it could be that the EU is only willing to grant an extension up to either the elections or just before the opening of the new EU parliament and sends May back with the instruction to “just get your deal over the line or go forth and multiply” - that, in turn, might mean that Bercow has shot himself in the foot because he has committed himself to not allowing May to put her deal before parliament again this session. In which case the option would be to dissolve parliament and start a new session, at least if we have a bit more time that could be done but there isn’t time to do it before the 29th and still get any parliamentary business through (as some have been suggesting).

I doubt he’s been on it for a while.

To dissolve Parliament will mean involving the Queen - and I cannot see the Civil Servants allowing that to happen as it would politicise the Monarchy. Her Maj will have to authorise the dissolution.

If Corbyn wins his no confidence vote then that would dissolve the House without having the Queen intervene and could then lead to a GE. Question is, who on the Tory side will take on the leadership because May has said she will not contest another GE.

Grieve? No chance - the grass roots of the party are Brexit leaning : he wouldnt get enough votes.
Boris? Dont think so as the intelligentsia within the party couldnt countenance the buffoon.
Gove? Possibly…and he has been schmoozing in the background.
Hammond? Nope - a remainer …see answer to Grieve above.
Lord Fontleroy? Cant see it…Too extreme although the Blue Rinse brigade do love him.

Quite a dilemma eh?

As for campaigning for the GE, the Tories will have to campaign for ‘May’s deal or no deal’ in the hope that she can convince enough of the public that she has the only plan that is agreed with the EU and it is a sure-fired way to achieve Brexit. There will be no mention of a referendum from her. Should the Tories win a GE they could claim that they have the political mandate to push the WA through.

Labour will be on the back foot. They cannot just campaign on the idea that they will respect the outcome of the referendum - they HAVE to put forward a plan, and the only plan they have is one that the EU will not accept… They have already been told that. That, in my view, can only leave them campaigning on having another referendum where the question is ‘May’s deal or stay in the EU’. It will be a tough pill for Corbyn to swallow - that is, if he is still leader! Labour would stand a much better chance of success if someone like Starmer was in charge. Campaigning for having another referendum will not appeal to a fair few of their parliamentarians, but they must get their house in order and soon if they intend to call a no confidence vote - they must have a believable plan. Corbyn’s current ‘cake and eat it’ is not going to fly where it matters - with the EU - we will be in exactly the same mess then as now - but with different problems.

Whilst I know there are other parties who can be voted for, it will always come down to these two and, whilst it will really stick in my throat, I will have to vote Labour - but only if they will…MUST…offer a referendum on the final deal.

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Hunt - possible, certainly not incompetent in previous ministerial posts esp FS, right stuff background
Javid - no, never
Give - plausible, has been keeping head down, no recent gaffs
BoJo - Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha, you’re kidding, right?
Grayling - not on your nellie
Davis - worryingly plausible
Mordaunt - I think even the Tory leader needs a few working brain cells
JRM - outside the ERG support not strong, no ministerial experience anyway :face_vomiting:
Rudd - might stand, won’t win
Leadsom - no, again, might stand, won’t win
Priti Patel - another candidate where it is hard to tell which is larger, IQ or shoe size.

Frankly I wouldn’t hire any of them to manage a play group, much less lead the country.

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Carl I don’t think Paul is meaning dissolving the whole Parliamentary term and calling an election. Under the fixed term Parliament act only May can do that and it takes a vote in Parliament. All parties have to agree and she wouldn’t do it currently. Corbyn could end it if he one a no confidence vote. I think Paul meant dissolving this session of Parliament with a two or three day break then Parliament resitting which under the rules would be a new parliamentary session which would allow May to bring her deal back. She just can’t do it in this current session.

My monies on May’s replacement would be Hunt but he’s a remainer so may not succeed or Gove maybe, Brexiteer good orator but he’s not trusted after stabbing Boris in the back. I wouldn’t rule out Davis at all either.

Hi Brian - I hear your point, and I understand what Paul was referring to, but my observation related to what was written on the BBC News website relating to this issue re Erskine May :

## Change the Parliament…

So, already there is a focus on the word “session” in Erskine May.

If MPs can’t discuss the same thing in the same session of Parliament, why not simply start a new one?

In the parlance, Parliament would be “prorogued” - in other words, the Queen would end the current session and a new one would begin soon after.

But this strategy would be extremely controversial, and may even be resisted by Buckingham Palace if it appeared that the monarchy was being used in a politically contentious way.

I really cannot see Parliament being allowed to drag the Queen into it’s murky affairs.

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They still think a 3rd meaning full vote will still take place and they are now going 1/2 for a no vote and 6/4 for yes so looks like the yes vote is getting some support.

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Meanwhile French Europe Minister Nathalie Loiseau has revealed she has named her cat Brexit. “He wakes me up every day meowing like mad because he wants to be let out, then when I open the door he just stands there, indecisive, then gives me a dirty look when I put him outside,”

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Might as well just call him “cat” then since every single one I have ever encountered does that.

Ours is more of a leaver, sometimes thinks she’d like to remain…reminds me of something…i just can’t remember what it is.

I called ours Cooking Fat…
not that I’m dyslectic :grin:

I love Spoonerisms. In French they are called contrepèterie and people like hiding them in anodyne texts.