Opinion: John Bercow is itching to stop Brexit – and he might just succeed

I have to admit that I had overlooked your well made point there Graham.

As I said, it would seem that the ace of trumps has indeed been played.

Ah, you have fallen into the trap of thinking “it doesn’t make much difference in practice”

As Graham as already pointed out it loses the week after the Queen’s speech, it also the case that prorogation is completely different to a recess - it can’t be cancelled (although I think parliament, being sovereign, can rescind the order as long as it does so before it breaks), all business shuts down and any legislation part way through its parliamentary course is abandoned (so there goes the Domestic Abuse Bill 2019 & the Divorce, Dissolution & Separation Bill 2019).

If someone does something more extreme than you expect, then says “well, it’s the same in practice” you should probably look deeper into their motives - in this case the very fact that Johnson has chosen this route rather than, say, proroguing for a week after the planned conference recess suggests that the difference does matter, and not just in theory.

It’s a bit like the backstop - if the Leavers were truly confident that “alternative arrangements” to allow a frictionless border in Ireland would be easy to specify and set up the backstop would never come into force and they would not be at all concerned that it is in the WA. The fact that they are so vehemently against the backstop tells you all you need to know about their true opinion of the alternative arrangements.

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The ‘ace of trump(s)’ analogy is interesting - reminded me of a recent newspaper headline, something like ‘the brexiters don’t want to govern, they just want to win’.
Perhaps in a sense it is a game - it often feels like both ultra-leavers and ultra-remainers ‘just want to win’ - trouble is the real world carries on regardless: the EU is the biggest richest trading block in a world increasingly breaking up into regional trading blocks, and this can only accelerate as climate/ecological breakdown makes long-distance transportation more and more difficult and expensive, and less and less acceptable to the public; the UK is trying to negotiate worse trading terms with its near neighbours just when it is going to have to trade with them rather than the rest of the world.
It is such realities that really ‘trump’ all politicians’ games - but unfortunately people sometimes have to suffer, and - worse - impose suffering on others, before they learn this lesson.

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I don’t see it as playing the ace of trumps, I think it’s more akin to an untrustworthy dealer slipping an unexpected card out of his sleeve. Mr Johnson doesn’t have the cards or the strategy to win in a fair open game.

‘The Game’ as I see it, has never really been about whether the UK is in or out of the EU, but much more about keeping the Conservative Party in power.

Back in the Cameron days, the Conservatives were forced into a coalition to maintain power, and so with an election looming, promised a referendum to try and stem the loss of votes to UKIP.
Cameron was as surprised as anyone that the Tories won an outright majority, and so had to keep his promise of holding a referendum which he had anticipated being blocked by the coalition partners.
The remain side then decided to concentrate on the dangers of leaving the EU, rather than extolling the benefits of remaining, which was yet another mistake. Cameron expected the remain argument to prevail which was another error.

Once the referendum result was known, then the Conservatives had to at least appear to go through with implementing the result in order to stop loosing voters to other parties.
Now we have a situation where the only way that the Conservatives can stand any hope of winning the next election is for Boris Johnson to take the UK out on Oct 31st, because if he doesn’t, then the Brexit Party stand ready to field candidates in every constituency at the next election.
Of course Nigel Farage won’t end up being Prime Minister, but by splitting the Tory vote he will virtually ensure a Labour government, and that is something that frightens the Tory party even more than Brexit. Once the UK leaves the EU, then the Brexit Party candidates will fade away and the Conservatives might just keep Labour out of No10.

The whole thing is about maintaining the Conservative Party in power and always has been, and Brexit is simply a tool to be used to that end.

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The only thing I would say Robert is that when the EU Referendum Act was put to a vote in 2015 it passed with a massive majority with basically only the SNP voting against it.

Going forward I agree that Johnson intends to call a GE after the UK has left the EU but getting a majority will be tight, the Tories will likely lose seats in Scotland especially now that Davidson has jumped ship, on the other hand with Corbyn in charge Labour faces a struggle to get back voters from the LibDems .

Talking about his grubby assistant, how come he has the right to sack a special advisor to the Chancellor and have her marched out of Downing Street like a common criminal?
I will be writing to my MP about this, her is a danger to all of us.

I know nothing about the man except what I’ve read, or observed very briefly on video clips of him, never posed or including speech.

As to his appearance: lean and athletic bearing, casually and very informally attired but not careless in dress; brisk and purposeful manner, neither inviting nor avoiding interaction with others, facial expression intense and ‘unreadable’, but again not inviting social contact.

I would think the word charisma fits him very well, in view of the huge influence he seems to exert, and his reputation for ruthlessness and swift action, and his lack of concern for the opinion or judgement on him by others. He commands both respect and acquiescence, even unquestioning obedience. And he gets it.

A Machiavellian prodigy.

His grasp and mastery of the protocols of power suggest to me that he probably on the ‘autistic spectrum’ and has a sociopathic profile. He is not emotionally insensitive but his sympathy and concern is with systems and not individuals. He is almost certainly very aware of his deficits in empathy and less than fully aware of his effect on others, but conscious of his relative inability to form ‘normal’ relations with others.

There will be a few others to whom he is totally loyal, but not affectionate. I think he is probably gifted in some artistic sphere or other, and gains comfort from that.

I don’t believe him to be evil. But like others of a similar kind, e.g. Rasputin, he will be very hard to deflect from his vision of what is good and true, and his (predicted by me) end will be abrupt and unexpected (by some).

a knife in the back no doubt…

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“Et tu, Brute”? That, I think, was a dagger in the front.

no one has the balls to do him in the front :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

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That’s very likely true, @graham.

What interests me is why such socially secure and intelligent people (educated at Eton to rule the universe with a sneer) are frightened of him?

That’s why Cummings has charisma. It’s not superficial charm and wit, charisma is the quality that commands the attention, the fealty, and the unquestioning obedience to the Master, just because there is no conceivable alternative.

It’s not what the Master can do, or might do, it’s just that it’s inescapable and terminal, and will happen to you.

Peston’s book on the referendum (WTF) has some interesting details on Cummings. One example that struck me was that he actually didn’t use the precise social media targeting he could have, deciding instead in the last days of the campaign to just flood all the target groups with just 2 simple messages - both of which he knew to be lies (one I recall was that Turkey was about to join the EU, and that literally millions of its islamic men were coming to the UK) - but which he also knew would not be debunked because nobody in the mainstream media etc would see the targeted ads in time. So he actually had the data to tailor a political argument to people with specific concerns - but chose instead to simply trick them.

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I don’t think the “majority of people in the UK now accept the result” but they just want the whole thing over. As for the country moving forward…!!! Don’t think most of those voted had a clue what they were voting for because of the scarcity of the simplistic information made available to them.

“a pair of lying womanisers”; relevance?

Your comment is significantly diminished by your "class’ implication.

I think there’s quite a lot of relevance. Personally I don’t trust liars or womanisers and certainly don’t think they should be in positions of power. Do you not have a problem with this?

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I agree! I am British and feel European. It amazes me that there was such a narrow 2% majority vote for ‘Leave’ , but the Conservative government have pushed for a hard Brexit and now a No Deal Brexit. Presumably if there had been a 80% vote for Leave, they would have filled in the Channel Tunnel and banned all flights to Europe and all imports from Europe?
Given that our current Prime Minister was found guilty of telling lies during the campaign, it is no surprise that he will use every tactic possible in the run up to the end of October.
I am not sure what wonderful vision of increased sovereignty people are hoping for after Brexit. I am not the slightest bit convinced about the Really Big Trade Deal Mr Trump will actually deliver, as I am not inclined to trust him as far as I can throw him (not far - i’m 5’1” and 60 years old :joy::joy:).

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What I can’t and won’t accept is that the result - supposed to be advisory - was treated as binding on the government given the massive misrepresentation by the Leave campaign: easiest deal ever, no downside,

It was advisory until the last general election, when both the Conservatives and Labour agreed to honour the result of the referendum. So now leaving the EU has become a commitment.

We can argue about how we should leave until kingdom come, and we probably will, but leave we must, unless there is second referendum. But remainers shouldn’t bank on achieving the result they want. Frustration and disillusion with the last three wasted years may just persuade a fresh majority to vote to leave at any cost.

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