I notice that Uxbridge (just) remained Tory yesterday. If there wasn’t the expected landslide against them in that byelection then there may not be the expected landslide in the next GE either.
Watching tv via my recently purchased Freesat satellite box I see that GB News is available, and which I have watched out of curiosity.
The few presenters I have seen, none of whom I can listen to for very long, along with most of their guests, shout at each other all the time. Hot air and hateful nonsense.
Isn’t there a hint that the anti-Tory vote was tainted by a backlash agains Labour for the very expensive ULEZ scheme being pushed by the Labour government in London?
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No hint at all, it was and is clear that some Labour policies are extremely unpopular, and sufficiently so to keep a Conservative government in power.
The next election is lost to Labour, if they can’t find a way to re-build rapport with their obvious support base. Rightly or wrongly, the ULEZ scheme is perceived as being heartless and punishing the less well off, and is quite unpopular.
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@Ancient_Mariner that is exactly what they were saying on France Inter this morning when they were talking about les municipales partielles.
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And doesnt work. Just using the motorist as the preverbial cash cow. Khan needs to get to grips with the pollution in the Underground where far more carcinogenics are floating around for everybody to breathe in both on the platform and in the trains instead of trying to make up the shortfall in his mismanagement of TFL
That would be the ULEZ imposed by the Tory government as part of the TfL funding package.
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Seems a bit extreme when Selby was taken by the biggest swing in years. Uxbridge was turned into a local issues vote, which is the luxury offered by a by-election.
Your assertion only holds water if we completely ignore the other two by-elections where the Tories were soundly thrashed with huge swings.
See my separate thread, there wasn’t really a swing. Tory voters just didn’t turn up at the ballot.
Ditto Somerset & Frome
In fact Uxbridge was the one where there was a definite swing to Labour.
We don’t actually know that since by-elections typically have lower overall turnout than general elections. All well can say is that fewer voters overall turned up at the ballot.
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Well, yes, it is impossible to say for sure.
But when the previously 2nd placed party vote remains more-or-less static and the Tory vote collapses by an amount which is almost identical to the numerical decrease in turnout - it’s not a big leap to suggest that the biggest factor is that Tory voters simply stayed home.
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So on this basis there was no swing to the opposition, and those parties still need to re-engage with those who should be their voter base?
I think the problem is that, although Labour is almost assured of the next election, it will do so from a fragile base of support - one which is based more on Tory supporters not voting than with people who don’t already support Labour switching sides.
Out of power the Tories will have time to regroup and a revitalised party will come back on the attack - and there will be plenty to attack because, as far as I can see, Labour is setting itself up to fail - they are so intent on taking the Tory’s centre and centre right stomping ground that their policies are designed not to alarm the centre-right, but they are making unnecessary red lines and that will trip them up, also the Tories are hell bent on leaving so much damage that Labour will never straighten it out in a single term.
To expand on the Selby result
Here is how it fell out in 2019
And in 2023
I’ve not included the minor parties.
The difference in turnout was 20532, almost exactly the same as the difference in the number of Tory votes which was 21700 (33995 → 12295), I suspect most of the 1160 or so unaccounted for went to the Reform candidate.
True, Labour did gain some votes - 2598 to be exact, but this is a big chunk of the reduction in Lib Dem vote of 3654 votes (4842 → 1188).
Now I agree that, maybe, a bunch of Tory voters switched and an equal size of Labour voters did not turn out - but is that terribly likely? Especially given that Labour supporters will have been incentivised to vote as they were very likely to win.
The overall picture is of a huge number of Tory voters staying home, with maybe about 1100 switching to Reform. On the other side of the equation maybe 2.5k previous Lib Dem voters lent their vote to Labour - and I suspect it will have been lent, not switched permanently and maybe another 1000 or so Lib Dem voters moving to one of the many independant candidates.
You can do nearly the same analysis in Somerton&Frome
Labour is seeing a considerable lead in the polls, but it should not assume that is new core support - it is support lent because people hate the Tories and it will disappear as fast as it arrived, not least because in many constituencies there is a large Tory contingent which isn’t engaging, but hasn’t switched sides.
I’m not going to predict the outcome of the next GE, but I do suspect it will be a low turnout affair.
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That’s a far more interesting analysis, than anything I’ve heard today on the,'balanced" BBC - I don’t actually listen to R4 any more, but OH still does and unfortunately much of it seeps through.
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Not sure this is the right forum, but I’d appreciate anyone’s explanation for the sudden dramatic divergence between sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates
You’ve done that twice now & as someone with strong connections around those parts I have to correct you - it’s Somerton & Frome.
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No one wants to see the Tory party ground into the dust more than I.
However, I fear that a Labour landslide would only perpetuate the ridiculous political situation that GB has suffered under the undemocratic first-past-the-post voting system.
A hung parliament would force Labour to address the elephant in the room; that is a system of true proportional representation. The smaller parties that a minority administration would rely on to govern would demand a proper reset, including an elected second chamber (or at least a proportionately appointed one).
Only when all votes carry the same weight will GB ever become a politically grown up country, capable of taking long term decisions for the benefit of the electorate, rather than simply keeping one party or another in power for a few years.
An added benefit is that GB would never be governed (I use that word loosely) again by a minority administration (for that is what it is) of corrupt, conniving, inept, lying, self serving & truly despicable excuses for humans like the current Tory party.
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I think we’re moving to a situation where a hanged parliament would be preferable to the present shower at Westminster.
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See what you did there, a much unused word these days. 
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They would shit on you one final time:poop:
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