Wise words ÎMO.
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Clearly, Russia is turning the war in Ukraine into one of attrition. There is great danger that the world, and in particular the US, will run out of funds to supply Ukraine’s fight.
This article in the NYT presents a rather interesting hypothetical solution:
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and our democratic partners have frozen roughly $300 billion in Russian central bank assets, amounting to a little less than half of the Kremlin’s foreign currency and gold reserves. Some of us have been arguing ever since that the money should be transferred to Ukraine, both as a matter of justice and as a deterrent against this kind of aggression. As the former Treasury secretary Larry Summers has put it, “Bank robbers should not expect banks to honor their safe deposit boxes.”
A report here for those interested:
I think the $300B should be used to pay back the US its €135B and the EU whatever we’ve given (which I read today either exceeds now, or will exceed soon the US contribution).
I know zero about military strategy but having read about the defences the Russians have put in place I don’t think a breakthrough is likely anytime soon. It didn’t bother Stalin to loose 27 million troops and I don’t think it will bother Putin how many Russians die. Maybe Zelenskyy should focus on a little less jingoism (which I noted as a Ukraine trait even before the invasion) and bit more concern for his fellow citizens being consumed by the meat grinder.
Peace has got to come at some stage and at some price. The sooner the better, before China or North Korea or Saudi or Israel or even India kicks off the next human tragedy. Is it better to have a pragmatic, if somewhat unpalatable peace now, or a “perfect” peace later at the cost of thousands if not tens of thousands of lives?
We’re a very silly species.
I agree with most of what you say but I can but wonder would I were I Ukrainian.
That we are a silly species seems quite so. 
Maybe if we were Ukrainian parents we’d feel the same. Had I son I wouldn’t want him to die for Crimea, or Iraq, or Vietnam, etc. etc. I’m all for big defence budgets, used for defence, and for smart diplomates and politicians that stop wars rather than win them.
I suspect that, since the war is likely to drag on for a while, if Trump wins next year then it’s game-over for Ukraine, even though Europe will continue supporting them for a while. If there’s a US president who will continue to support then they will retake at least Donbas.
If Ukraine were my land, in these circumstances I think I’d be willing to risk getting killed to eject the invader. Peace at any price? That’s only very, very temporary.
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I was in Manchester last week and ended up chatting to the Ukrainian ‘chamber mais’ via Google translate . She was my age and had been a paediatrician . She was very positive, telling me that at least she had a job and her family there. Then she said ‘no cat, no dog’ (without Google translate) and started crying. Then we talked about Putin and I got the impression that people who have basically lost everything will fight to the end. It was a humbling exchange.
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Maid not mais. Keyboard being French !
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Absolutely, such a highly qualified person and yet remaining positive.
It makes us all back Ukraine even more.
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Ukraine faces a long war. A change of course is needed
Its backers should pray for a speedy victory—but plan for a long struggle
Sep 21st 2023
image: The Economist
The war in Ukraine has repeatedly confounded expectations. It is now doing so again. The counter-offensive that began in June was based on the hope that Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with modern Western weapons and after training in Germany, would recapture enough territory to put their leaders in a strong position at any subsequent negotiations.
This plan is not working. Despite heroic efforts and breaches of Russian defences near Robotyne, Ukraine has liberated less than 0.25% of the territory that Russia occupied in June. The 1,000km front line has barely shifted. Ukraine’s army could still make a breakthrough in the coming weeks, triggering the collapse of brittle Russian forces. But on the evidence of the past three months, it would be a mistake to bank on that.
Asking for a ceasefire or peace talks is pointless. Vladimir Putin shows no sign of wanting to negotiate and, even if he did, could not be trusted to stick to a deal. He is waiting for the West to tire and hoping that Donald Trump is re-elected. Mr Putin needs war to underpin his domestic dictatorship; any ceasefire would simply be a pause to re-arm and get ready to attack again. If Ukrainians stop fighting, they could lose their country.
Both Ukraine and its Western supporters are coming to realise that this will be a grinding war of attrition. President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Washington this week for talks. “I have to be ready for the long war,” he told The Economist. But unfortunately, Ukraine is not yet ready; nor are its Western partners. Both are still fixated on the counter-offensive. They need to rethink Ukraine’s military strategy and how its economy is run. Instead of aiming to “win” and then rebuild, the goal should be to ensure that Ukraine has the staying power to wage a long war—and can thrive despite it.
The first recalibration is military. Ukraine’s soldiers are exhausted; many of its finest have been killed. Despite conscription, it lacks the manpower to sustain a permanent large-scale counter-offensive. It needs to husband resources, and to change the game. New tactics and technologies can take the fight to Russia. Ukraine’s tech-savvy entrepreneurs are ramping up drone production: Ukrainian drones recently destroyed Russian warships; its missiles seem to have damaged a big air-defence system in Crimea. Many more strikes are likely, to degrade Russia’s military infrastructure and deny its navy sanctuary in the Black Sea. Don’t expect a knockout blow. Russia has also scaled up its drone production. Still, Ukraine can hit back when Russia bombs it, and perhaps even deter some attacks.
Alongside this offensive capability, Ukraine needs to boost its resilience. As well as heavy weaponry, it needs help with maintenance to sustain a multi-year fight: humdrum repairs, reliable supplies of artillery and training. More than anything, a long war requires better air defence. Ukraine cannot thrive if Russia blasts infrastructure and civilians with impunity, as it has for the past 18 months. Kyiv is a surprisingly vibrant city because it has effective defences against non-stop aerial attacks. The same set-up is needed for other cities, which is why squadrons of f-16s and more missile-defence systems are essential.
An economic recalibration is needed, too. That means fewer highfalutin plans for post-war reconstruction and more attention to boosting output and capital spending now. The economy has shrunk by a third and almost half of Ukraine’s budget is paid for with Western cash. In an odd kind of wartime Dutch disease the currency, the hryvnia, has strengthened even as private investment has plunged. With around 1m people bearing arms and millions having fled from the country, workers are scarce.
Ukraine’s economy needs to shift from relying on aid to attracting investment, even as the conflict keeps raging. From making more arms to processing more of what it grows on its farms, Ukraine has plenty of potential. The challenge is to get local and foreign firms to invest more, and to lure more Ukrainians back to the calmer parts of the country in the west.
Better security can help. The stronger Ukraine’s air defences, the lower the risk that a new factory will be blown up. The farther Russia’s navy is pushed back, the more safely exports can flow through Ukraine’s ports on the Black Sea. But economic reforms matter, too. More must be done to curb Ukraine’s long-standing corruption, with a priority on making the judiciary clean and impartial. And more action is needed to make doing business easier, from recognising qualifications that refugees have earned abroad to offering firms war insurance.
All this requires political will from Ukraine, but also from its friends in the West. In the long term, the best guarantee of Ukraine’s security is nato membership. Short of that, partners have promised a web of bilateral security guarantees. Equally important is what the European Union can offer: not just cash, but the prospect of membership. It is not easy to nurture a flourishing economy while being barraged with explosives—even Israel never had to face such a powerful aggressor. But Ukraine, unlike Israel, could one day be integrated into the world’s richest economic bloc. A roadmap for EU accession over, say, a decade, with clear milestones, would offer hope to Ukrainians and accelerate economic reforms, just as the same promise galvanised much of eastern Europe in the 1990s.
A new member of the club
For that to happen a shift in mindset is needed in Europe. It has committed as much weaponry as America and far more financial aid. Yet it needs to step up further. If Mr Trump wins in 2024, he may cut back American military assistance. Even if he loses, Europe will eventually need to carry more of the burden. That means beefing up its defence industry and reforming the eu’s decision-making so it can handle more members.
The stakes could hardly be higher. Defeat would mean a failed state on the eu’s flank and Mr Putin’s killing machine closer to more of its borders. Success would mean a new eu member with 30m well-educated people, Europe’s biggest army and a large agricultural and industrial base. Too many conversations about Ukraine are predicated on an “end to the war”. That needs to change. Pray for a speedy victory, but plan for a long struggle—and a Ukraine that can survive and thrive nonetheless.■
From the Economist just now.
I agree that Ukraine will have to endure a long war of attrition. I also hear repeated in the article and elsewhere what Ukraine has been asking for since almost the beginning - give them the air power, air force, to protect themselves now.
Like it or not, a win in almost any form that Putin can triumph would be a disaster eventually for Europe, and quite likely more wars.
In many ways the war is long and drawn out because they’ve been restricted in the armaments they have been given. I understand why, but the situation is not unpredictable.
I’m not so sure Susannah, but I’ve written too much on that already. When Bush pushed for Ukraine membership of NATO, Russia had no option but to reclaim Sevastopol, which was easy to see coming. Then years of diplomatic failure and a spot of the US fiddling in Ukrainian internal politics got us to where we are. I don’t believe Russia had expansionist aspirations, I do believe that’s a good story for us to be fed now.
Currently the West’s focus on Moscow is only emboldening China, North Korea and India and diverting scrutiny on Israel and Saudi. The US has been obsessed with Russia since the cold war, now IMO there are far bigger dangers abroad than a weakened Russia.
The whole Ukraine situation (apart from on the battlefield) is moving swiftly and US support is at risk. This can’t be an blank cheque from the West. I think Zelensky’s on a sticky wicket and for the sake of his people I think he should try and wrap this up quickly with the best deal possible.
I also think there then should ultimately be a rapprochement with Russia (Putin won’t live forever) and a focus on the greater risks to World stability.
Interesting, pragmatic and well-informed piece here:-
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This thread seems to have gone quiet. Is it no longer war of the year?
Still happening tho”.
It still goes on and it’s not forgy, just overshadowed at the moment.
This was always going to be a long war. Worrying now that the US funding is getting stretched between two wars and Ukraine’s troops are getting weary and diminishing while Russia has a limitless supply of pressed combatants and missiles obtained by rogue regimes.
No les sad than it ever was.
Very much dropped off the front page because Gaza is generating more striking headlines. I’m deliberately clicking on the 'war in Ukraine ’ BBC link in the hope that if enough do they’ll keep updating the channel.
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I do the same , but not much seems to be happening (as far as news reporting goes). Seems (from afar) to be a bit of a stalemate with long range sniping from both sides
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